(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #17, January 2005. Problems of bias, insecurity, and voter confusion have undermined the democratic value of the election. Nonetheless, it will win greater international legitimacy for the US mission and enable more vigorous counter-insurgency operations. US withdrawal will not soon occur. The memo examines likely electoral outcomes and the factors shaping the new Iraqi government. An addendum summarizes Iraqi public opinion regarding the occupation and US forces.
Iraq War
Is the Iraq war sapping America’s military power? Cautionary data and perspectives
(HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Melissa Murphy, Project on Defense Alternatives, 22 October 2004. Charts, Reference Material:
Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #16, July 2004. Can the “new” approach to the Iraq mission succeed where the previous effort failed? “No,” the fundamental problem is mission goals that are overly ambitious, intrusive, and polarizing. The report analyzes the failures of the US postwar mission in Iraq and proposes essential steps toward peace, stability, and US withdrawal.
Outsourcing Torture and the Problems of ‘Quality Control’
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 18 May 2004. The numbers of prisoners for processing in Iraq were so great that government interrogators began to rely on the assistance of under-trained and youthful soldiers who were so “shockingly undisciplined” that they took photos of their activities to send home — yet another indicator of how poorly prepared for a large scale occupation the United States was before going into Iraq. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus and Antiwar.com websites.
Outsourcing torture and the problems of “quality control”
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, Global Beat Syndicate, 17 May 2004. “…the United States as a state sponsor of torture, perpetrated or exported to foreign stooges, is having a ripple effect globally that will damage our image for a long time to come.”
The Bush Doctrine: Origins, Evolution, Alternatives
(printable PDF version) by Mark Gerard Mantho, PDA Guest Publication, April 2004. The Bush administration’s national security doctrine represents the most sweeping change in U.S. foreign policy since World War II and was the conceptual underpinning of the President’s decision to invade Iraq. Yet few Americans realize where the policy came from, who crafted it, or even what it is.
Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a “New Warfare”
by Carl Conetta, PDA Research Monograph #9, 18 February 2004. ➪ PDF ➪ summary PDF ➪ HTML ➪ summary HTML
Examines the Pentagon’s treatment of the civilian casualty issue in the Iraq and Afghan wars, reviews the “spin” and “news frames” used by defense officials to shape the public debate over casualties, and critiques the concept of a “precision warfare” as misleading. Case studies include the Baghdad bombing campaign. An appendix provides a comprehensive Guide to Surveys and Reporting on Casualties in the Afghan and Iraq Wars.
The New Occupation: How Preventive War is Wrecking the Military
(HTML version) by Charles Knight and Marcus Corbin, Security Policy Working Group Commentary, 04 January 2004.
The Wages of War: Iraqi Combatant and Noncombatant Fatalities in the 2003 Conflict
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #8, 20 October 2003. How many Iraqis died in the 2003 Iraq war? What are the implications for stability in Iraq, the war on terrorism, and the “new warfare”? The report estimates the total number of Iraqis killed in the 2003 war, based on hospital and burial reports, combat statistics, and battlefield testimony from both sides. Uniquely, the report distinguishes noncombatant and combatant civilians. And it compares the experience of Operations Iraqi Freedom and Desert Storm. With two appendices: Appendix 1. Survey and assessment of reported Iraqi combatant fatalities in the 2003 War and Appendix 2. Iraqi Combatant and Noncombatant Fatalities in the 1991 Gulf War.
The Sources of Terrorism
(printable PDF version) by Charles Knight and Melissa Murphy, correspondence published in International Security, Vol. 28, No. 2 (Fall 2003) pp. 192-195, comment on Michael Mousseau, “Market Civilization and Its Clash with Terror,” International Security, Vol. 27, No. 3 (Winter 2002/03) pp.5- 29.
Catastrophic Interdiction: Air Power and the Collapse of the Iraqi Field Army in the 2003 War
(printable PDF version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #30, 26 September 2003. Examines how air power helped bring about the collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army in the 2003 war. Compares the air campaigns of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Desert Storm, and estimates combatant casualties due to air interdiction in the 2003 war.
Burning Down the House: How the Iraq War Will Affect the International System
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #15, 06 May 2003. Nothing could be worse for arms control prospects and international stability than the widespread impression that military activism and unilateralism are on the rise. This puts a premium on re-militarization and discourages de-militarization.
What Colin Powell Showed Us: The End of Arms Control and the Normalization of War
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #14, 05 May 2003. An appreciation of the value and limits of arms control is necessary in order to understand how debasing the standards of proof leads ultimately to the demise of diplomacy and the unnecessary resort to war.
Disarming Iraq: What Did the UN Missions Accomplish?
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #27, 25 April 2003. A review of the evidence finds that while UN disarmament missions contributed substantially to disarming Iraq and increasing confidence, they also left substantial residual uncertainties. However, the disarmament missions served to tightly constrain Iraq’s WMD capability and undercut its effectiveness and standard military deterrence would have acted to keep this residual threat in check.
Reconstructing Iraq: Costs and Possible Income Sources
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #28, 25 April 2003. A review of accounts reveals a severe shortage of reconstruction funds.
As Baghdad Falls Howard Dean Seeks to Reassure the Democratic Establishment of His Support for Unilateralist Options
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, Common Dreams, 14 April 2003. On 17 April 2003 Howard Dean replied on Common Dreams.
Inspecting Iraq: A Record of the First 40 Days
(HTML version) compiled by the Project on Defense Alternatives, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 04 January 2003. With war and peace hanging in the balance, what evidence of prohibited weapons have UN inspectors found in Iraq? This compendium of press reports provides a thorough review of the UNMOVIC inspections through 4 January 2003.
First Strike Guidelines: the case of Iraq
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Memo #25, 16 September 2002 (revised and updated 10 March 2003, postscript added 01 March 2004). Assesses how the case of Iraq measures up within a set of guidelines for preemptive counterproliferation developed by the director of the Air Force Counterproliferation Center. Includes extensive notes with links to material relevant to making an informed decision about war. The original 16 September 2002 edition is available in a PDF version and a HTML version.
Bush Raises the Stakes in Iraq
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 03 July 2002. Argues that President Bush’s declared policy of “regime change” for Iraq destroys the incentives of deterrence and increases the risk of U.S. troops being exposed to Iraq’s defensive use of chemical weapons. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus.
Dislocating Alcyoneus: How to combat al-Qaeda and the new terrorism
(HTML version) (PDF version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #23, 25 June 2002. The memo outlines a “strategy of dislocation” for defeating the new terrorism. Al Qaeda is analyzed as a “distributed transnational network” that uses terrorism in order to catalyze political-cultural polarization and mobilization. Published in Hegemonie oder Stabilität: Alternativen zur Militarisierung der Politik, edited by Volker Kröning (MdB), Lutz Unterseher, and Günter Verheugen (Hrsg.) Bremen: Edition Temmen, August 2002.
Rotocraft for War: Descending on a Military Dilemma
(HTML version) by Dr. Lutz Unterseher, PDA Briefing Memo #19, May 2001. Offers a critical assessment of the value of combat helicopters in modern war with examination of the technical characteristics and limits of combat helicopters, the doctrine for their use, and issues of cost. Case studies include the Gulf War, Vietnam, and Afghanistan.
Air Power Promises and Modernization Trends after Operation Desert Storm
by Alan Bloomgarden and Carl Conetta, Dec 1994.
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➪ PDF
This article first appeared in 1994 in a slightly edited form in Hawk Journal, the annual publication of the Royal Air Force Staff College.
The expectation of an airpower revolution began in earnest soon after victory in the first US-Iraq Gulf War, 1990-1991. Drawing extensively on official and outside expert assessment of airpower in “Operation Desert Storm,” this article critically reviews the evidence for an airpower revolution while summarizing a range of contemporary opinions on the issue.
Specifically, the article examines three claims advanced by airpower enthusiasts at the dawn of the post-Cold War period: that the Gulf War experience suggests greatly expanded options for limited-aims “raiding missions,” strategic bombing campaigns, and airpower dominance over the ground battle (using improved battlefield interdiction and close air support.)
Included are summaries of the extensive Gulf War Air Power Survey and other surveys of the war which provide an unsurpassed view of the war’s dynamics. It also examines the technologies, contemporary and in development, central to the putative airpower revolution.
