Wars & Military Operations

No good reason to boost Army, Marine Corps end strength

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #20, 31 January 2007. The proposal to add 92,000 personnel to US ground forces will combine with other initiatives to greatly increase America’s capacity to sustain large, protracted ground operations overseas. And it will enable an indefinite stay in Iraq. The rationale for this capability misconstrues the lessons of the Iraq war and America’s true security requirements. The memo also reviews recent and possible future deployment patterns.

Resolving Iraq: Progress depends on a short timeline for US troop withdrawal

(printable PDF version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #40, 18 January 2007.  The memo argues that the large-scale US military presence in Iraq makes sustainable progress toward peace and stability there impossible. It advances an alternative approach to stabilizing Iraq that hinges on a short timeline for US troop withdrawal and a new international effort including Iraq’s neighbors.

The Near Enemy and the Far: The Long War, China, and the 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review

by Carl Conetta, 01 November 2006.  ➪ HTML  ➪  PDF.  An edited version of this analysis appeared in the July 2006 issue of the World Policy Journal with the title Dissuading China and Fighting the ‘Long War’ (PDF).

The 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review advanced two new strategic vectors for the US armed forces – one targeted a putative “global Islamic insurgency,” the other put America on a collision course with China.

War & Consequences: Global Terrorism has Increased Since 9/11 Attacks

(HTML version) (printable PDF version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #38, 25 September 2006. The memo analyzes the change in the incidence of terrorism since 11 September 2001, finding a distinct increase. It also summarizes the findings of various studies on the relationship between the Iraq war and terrorism which show that in the words of one, the Iraq war “has reinforced the determination of terrorists who were already committed to attacking the West and motivated others who were not.”

Fighting on Borrowed Time: The Effect on US Military Readiness of America’s post-9/11 Wars

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #19, 11 September 2006. To sustain today’s wars, the Bush administration has adopted a policy of “risk displacement”. High optempo is maintained in Iraq and Afghanistan at the expense of readiness elsewhere and for other missions. The policy also saps future readiness. It may take the US military half a decade to recover.

Pyrrhus on the Potomac: How America’s post-9/11 wars have undermined US national security

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #18, 05 September 2006.  A net assessment of America’s post-911 security policy shows it to be “pyrrhic” in character: although progress has been made in disrupting Al Qaeda, the broader effect has been to increase the threat to the United States, while weakening the nation’s capacity to respond effectively.

Dissuading China and Fighting the ‘Long War’

by Carl Conetta, World Policy Journal, 01 July 2006. ➪ PDF

The 2006 US Defense Review advanced two new strategic vectors for the US armed forces – one targets a putative “global Islamic insurgency”; the other puts America on a collision course with China.

(A longer version of this article was published in November 2006 under the title The Near Enemy and the Far: The Long War, China, and the 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review.)

We Can See Clearly Now: The Limits of Foresight in the pre-World War II Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)

by Carl Conetta, PDA Research Monograph #12, 02 March 2006.  ➪   PDF  ➪ HTML

 

“Military transformation” and the idea of a “Revolution in Military Affairs” are prominent themes in US defense planning. However, the example of revolutionary change during the Second World War suggests that forecasting such revolutions poses a daunting, if not insurmountable challenge.

More troops for Iraq? Time to just say “No”

(printable PDF version) (HTML version)  by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #39, 09 January 2006.  There is no reason to believe that a marginal increase in the US troop presence in Iraq will turn the tide there. The memo reviews relevant data on troop strength, insurgent activity, and Iraqi public opinion. It traces America’s troubles in Iraq to the nature of the mission, which it concludes is founded on strategic error.

Arms Control in an Age of Strategic and Military Revolution

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Presentation to Einstein Forum, Berlin, 15 November 2005. Changes in the nature of warfare, military technology, and the global strategic environment pose new challenges for arms control. The article critically examines new forms of strategic warfare, cyberwar, so-called “precision” conventional warfare, and less lethal weaponry.

400 Days and Out: A Strategy for Solving the Iraq Impasse

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #34, 19 July 2005.The memo outlines a strategy for substantially defusing the Iraqi insurgency, de-escalating the inter-communal conflict there, and enabling near-total US troop withdrawal by September 2006.

Appendix: The Iraqi Insurgency & Iraq Security Force Development: Selected Bibliography

Vicious Circle: The Dynamics of Occupation and Resistance in Iraq, Part One. Patterns of Popular Discontent

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #10, 18 May 2005. An analysis of Iraqi public opinion data and interviews suggests that coalition military activity is contributing substantially to anti-coalition sentiments. A “vicious circle” is indicated, whereby counter-insurgent operations create support for the insurgency. The report tracks coalition military activity and relates it to Iraqi discontent and insurgent activity. Differences among Iraqi communities are also assessed.

Agonizing Issue: is torture ever justified in military interrogations of terror suspects?

(HTML version) (printable PDF version) interview with Charles Knight, co-director, Project on Defense Alternatives and Alfred P. Rubin, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Law, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, transcript edited by Jim Cronin, The Boston Globe Magazine, 30 January 2005.  The United States is now training hundreds, maybe thousands, of new interrogators.  Abusive relationships traumatize both the victim and the abuser. We are training and having our own people experience this abuse, and they will be returning home to our communities. We know from studies of domestic abuse that this abusive pattern can be replicated through generations.

The Iraqi election “bait and switch”: faulty poll will not bring peace or US withdrawal

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #17, January 2005. Problems of bias, insecurity, and voter confusion have undermined the democratic value of the election. Nonetheless, it will win greater international legitimacy for the US mission and enable more vigorous counter-insurgency operations. US withdrawal will not soon occur. The memo examines likely electoral outcomes and the factors shaping the new Iraqi government. An addendum summarizes Iraqi public opinion regarding the occupation and US forces.

Is the Iraq war sapping America’s military power? Cautionary data and perspectives

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Melissa Murphy, Project on Defense Alternatives, 22 October 2004.  Charts, Reference Material:

Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #16, July 2004. Can the “new” approach to the Iraq mission succeed where the previous effort failed? “No,” the fundamental problem is mission goals that are overly ambitious, intrusive, and polarizing. The report analyzes the failures of the US postwar mission in Iraq and proposes essential steps toward peace, stability, and US withdrawal.

Outsourcing Torture and the Problems of ‘Quality Control’

(HTML version) by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 18 May 2004. The numbers of prisoners for processing in Iraq were so great that government interrogators began to rely on the assistance of under-trained and youthful soldiers who were so “shockingly undisciplined” that they took photos of their activities to send home — yet another indicator of how poorly prepared for a large scale occupation the United States was before going into Iraq. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus and Antiwar.com websites.

The Bush Doctrine: Origins, Evolution, Alternatives

(printable PDF version) by Mark Gerard Mantho, PDA Guest Publication, April 2004. The Bush administration’s national security doctrine represents the most sweeping change in U.S. foreign policy since World War II and was the conceptual underpinning of the President’s decision to invade Iraq. Yet few Americans realize where the policy came from, who crafted it, or even what it is.