Many in the US want swift and massive retaliation against the terrorists and anyone who harbored them on the assumption that such retaliation will deter future attack. Others have compared the US to Israel, saying "now we know" what they must feel like and why the Israeli government strikes so hard against terrorists.

If anything should be clear, the comparison to Israel suggests that retaliation does not work. Both Israeli and Palestinian violence have only bred more violence. Similarly, previous US retaliation against suspected terrorists has not brought an end to terrorism.

Why doesn't retaliation work?

First, many who advocate retaliation wrongly assume that those who are attacked will be afraid - and that the fearful and injured back down. But history shows that the fearful and injured rarely capitulate.

Even though terrified, and for some time incapacitated emotionally, Stalin did not back down when Hitler's forces conducted a surprise attack against his military. Rather, the Soviets mounted an enormous effort to defeat the Nazis. The US did not back down after Pearl Harbor. Nor has the Iraqi government yielded even after war and years of sanctions and regular air assaults. Quaddaffi did not resign after a US assault that killed a member of his family.

Like the US this week, the response of terrorists to US assault - even if it is in retaliation for attack - is just as likely to be increased resolve. Thus the cycle of violence will be stoked if the US responds to this violence with aggressive military action.

Second, many wrongly assume that great power military force works against guerrilla warriors. The history of colonial wars and decolonization efforts in the twentieth century suggests that wars against guerrillas cannot be won unless the great power is willing to annihilate the population where the guerrillas reside. But annihilation, which would surely involve killing innocent people cannot be acceptable, and would only sow the seeds of future resentment and terrorist acts in retaliation.

If massive retaliation is likely to fail at best, or to unleash years of reprisals and an escalation at worst - what could be done instead?

There are at least two other options. First, as some have suggested, we could treat these events as crimes against humanity. The US could then, if it fully joined the International Criminal Court, use the apparatus of the court to apprehend, put on trial, and imprison the criminals responsible.

The US could also use its diplomatic and economic might to eliminate the root causes of terrorism. I am not suggesting a dialogue with terrorists. We cannot speak with anyone who is shooting at us until they lay down their weapons, at least for the moment. However, we can work to ammeliorate the political frustration, economic distress, and resentment against the US that creates new terrorists and their supporters.

These solutions will take a long time to implement. Law enforcement against suspected criminals and policy changes on the order necessary to deal with this problem will test our patience. Yet the impulses for revenge must not be satisfied because to respond with violence would be disastrously counterproductive.

The responsible thing for the President and Congress to do would be to lower the rhetorical temperature in Washington and halt the contest to sound more bellicose and patriotic than the last politician or official. This is a long term problem that cannot be solved by declarations of war or speedy attacks.

I hope we do not have to explain to our children and grandchildren twenty or forty years from now, that this was indeed the start of the nightmare they face.

Neta Crawford is Visiting Associate Professor (Research) at the Thomas J. Watson Jr. Institute for International Studies at Brown University and Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Citation: Neta C. Crawford, Fear Itself: Hazards of Massive Retaliation Project on Defense Alternatives Guest Commentary. Cambridge, MA: Commonwealth Institute, 14 September 2001.
http://www.comw.org/pda/0109crawford.html

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