A very significant change in the balance of opinion, but hardly surprising. Within this group, however, only half favor territorial concessions – that is 26% of the whole. Still, even among those 38% of Ukrainians who want to continue fighting until victory, only 81% say that means recovering all territory. Gallup, Ukrainian Opinion on Negotiating Peace Now

“US Senate is set to vote this week on ‘historic’ resolutions of disapproval of a $20bn weapons deal with Israel.” Essential background: The failure of Israel to make progress in redressing the humanitarian disaster it’s made in Gaza as demanded by the Biden administration. The administration set a Nov 13 deadline, but now claims contrary to evidence that Israeli behavior is acceptable. Al Jazeera, Bernie Sanders pushes to block US arms sale to Israel

“The vast majority of more than 800 companies in Ukraine’s burgeoning defense production sector were founded after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion that enters its 1,000th day on Tuesday…. The Ukrainian military-industrial sector is the fastest innovating sector in the entire world right now.” Drones and counter-drone tech are the leading sectors. US News, 1000 Days of Conflict Fuel Robot Wars Between Russia and Ukraine

“Russia is engaged in what US officials describe as the ‘most ambitious expansion in military manufacturing since the Soviet era’. Satellite imagery suggests that solid-propellant rocket motor-production capacity appears to be one focus of this effort. Substantial development activity is visible at five sites associated with the production of solid propellants.” IISS, Russia Expanding Rocket Facilities

“During campaign, Trump vowed to purge military of ‘woke’ generals” – that is, those supportive of diversity, equality, and inclusion initiatives. But what about extremism in the ranks. Reuters, How Trump could lead a Pentagon purge

“An executive order draft…would establish a Trump-appointed “warrior board” with the power to purge any three- or four-star generals as it sees fit.” TRP, A Military Purge?

How will Moscow respond? Hard not to see this as US-election related. Trump talks talks, Biden unbinds deep-strike ATACMs. Will this improve Zelenskyy’s bargaining position? Well, Moscow is bound to retaliate in ways that undercut impetus for peace talks. Possible responses? Much of western Ukraine has escaped heavy bombardment – so far. Horizontal escalation could involve actions regarding N.Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, or the Sahel. And a single Ukrainian strike claiming numerous Russian civilians is all Putin needs to enact a general mobilization with impunity. AP, Biden authorizes Ukrainian deep strikes with US weapons

Early in the Israel-Gaza war the IDF posted hundreds of clips of its air strikes. “Despite the grainy videos published with few details on targets or locations, Airwars matched 17 strikes to specific” locations where “more than 400 civilians were reported killed.” Our observation: An unspoken possibility is that a minority of IDF air strikes caused most of the direct civilian deaths. A marginal increase in target discrimination and restraint might have dramatically reduced civilian casualties. Airwars Report

The IDF says it has run “a ‘precise campaign’ in Gaza, but analysis of air strike clips tells a different story.” The analysis group Airwars has examined Israeli military film clips of air strikes and in 17 cases was able to correlate the strikes to reports of civilian casualties. 400 Gazans were killed in these strike, including more than 200 children. Middle East Eye, Film Clips of Israeli Air Strikes Reveal Civilian Harm

“Israeli authorities have caused massive, deliberate forced displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza since October 2023 and are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity. There is no plausible imperative military reason to justify Israel’s mass displacement of nearly all of Gaza’s population.” HRW, Israel’s Crimes Against Humanity

Moscow had argued for 15 years that the missile placement would violate the now defunct INF Treaty. Washington disagreed and also counter-charged in 2014 that Russia had deployed a ground-based cruise-missile that exceeded INF range limits. Could this standoff be resolved? It is one of a few regional East-West security disagreements whose resolution might, as a side deal, favorably affect Moscow’s approach to negotiating an end to the Ukraine war. AP: US and Polish officials open missile defense site that Russia has long protested. Stars & Stripes (AP), US and Polish officials open missile defense site

Donald Trump’s appointment of Marco Rubio as Sec of State, Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, and Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary signals an acutely confrontational approach to China. High tariffs and export/import bans are coming. Also likely: More military aid and quasi-governmental links with Taiwan as well as more US military presence and activity in the Pacific. But “China has had the experience of dealing with Trump and his shock-and-awe approach and is better prepared to take the hits this time.” This could include counter-tariffs and bans as well contentious diplomacy in the Global South. The Straits Tines, Trump’s China hawks and the future of Sino-US ties

“The White House last month gave Israel 30 days to improve conditions or risk losing military support. As the deadline expired, international aid groups said the US fell far short, with the humanitarian situation in Gaza the worst it has been since the war erupted.” AP, Only limited aid getting inside Gaza

But “relief groups say conditions are worse than at any point in the 13-month-old war.” AP, US will not limit arms transfers 

“‘I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,’ Admiral Rob Bauer, the outgoing chief of NATO’s Military Committee.” Newsweek, NATO Military Chief re:Russian Nukes

“Sanders’ resolutions will almost certainly be defeated on the Senate floor, but they will give a good snapshot of just how strong the sentiment against Israel’s war effort in Gaza is amongst Senate Democrats.” Axios, Sanders seeks to block arms sales

The Cradle, Beirut rejects ‘ceasefire deal’ “Tel Aviv has demanded a ‘unilateral’ ceasefire from the Lebanese side – while insisting on the right to maintain military access to Lebanese territory and airspace.” NOTE: The article reports that more than 100 IDF troops have been killed in Lebanon; Israel reports only 44 as of Oct 29. Article also reports the destruction of dozens of Israeli tanks – which is doubtful given lack of recent confirming photos. However, many are sure to have been hit by antitank rocket fire – to unknown effect.

AA, Israeli 2nd Phase of Lebanon Op

“In Lebanon, at least 3,243 people have been killed and 14,134 wounded in Israeli attacks since October 2023.” Al Jazeera, Israel pounds Beirut

The Cradle, Haifa mayor

“In 1989, East German youth tore down the Berlin Wall, dreaming of freedom and prosperity. However, the reform programme that was soon imposed on them had devastating effects, comparable to those of war… When you create wastelands known to produce monsters, you should not feign surprise when those monsters appear.” Le Monde diplomatique, The other Great Depression

Washington will no longer accept Hamas reps in Qatar, accusing the group of refusing “to negotiate a deal in good faith”. But it was Washington & Israel that kept on moving the goal post. Well, the US election is over… and so is the negotiation pretense. BBC, Qatar suspends role as mediator between Israel and Hamas

Al Jazeera:  “According to analysts, the sacking of Yoav Gallant” – which has sparked violent Israeli protests – “ removes the loudest voice in the room calling for a ceasefire… Gallant, infamous for likening Palestinians to ‘human animals’, attributed his dismissal to three factors” – his support for enlisiting religious students, his calls for an inquiry into the security failings that opned the door to the Oct 7 Hamas attack, and his backing of a ceasefire deal. Al Jazeera, Endless’ wars: What Israel’s political drama means for Gaza, Lebanon.

ACLED, Israel-Hezbollah War Data

Axios, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/05/us-iraq-iran-israel-attack-warning

“A weakened Hezbollah continues to fight in the area near the border despite severe blows against its leadership and operational structure” – El Pais,  “Israel bogged down in southern Lebanon“

“This election cycle saw unprecedented spending by the Israel lobby, which donated more to House and Senate candidates than in the last two elections combined: $44,656,374 in 2023-2024, compared to $17,175,455 in 2021-2022 and $12,661,440 in 2019-2020. Since April, the lobby has spent over $7.5 million to bolster its favored candidates in Congress.” Washington Report on the Middle East, Unprecedented Pro-Israel PAC Funding

Axios, Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests  “Israeli intelligence suggests the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.”

The Cradle, Satellite images show Israel razed over 1,000 buildings in south Lebanon – “At least 200 of the buildings destroyed by Israel were blown up in “controlled demolitions,” a practice the Israeli army has repeatedly used across the Gaza Strip.”

AP, About 8,000 North Korean troops at Ukraine’s border are expected in combat in days, US says,  If NK troops fight in Kursk for Russia, why can’t NATO troops fight in Ukraine for Kyiv? Simple: it may look as though NATO troops killing Russians and vice versa is the same as Ukrainians killing North Koreans and vice versa, but it only looks that way if one fails to appreciate the distinctive character of the nuclear superpowers and their relationship. Putting additional NATO troops in Ukraine (beyond the ~100 already present) is qualitatively different. Putin has found a way to match NATO brinkmanship. For now.

UPI “Blinken, Austin: No evidence Russia is helping North Korea develop ICBMs” – The Ukraine war has certainly set back efforts to contain N.Korea, although continuing emphasis on the goal of complete disarmament is a non-starter in any case. (BTW: The article asserts that Russia is losing 1200 troops daily. That’s wishful thinking/propaganda. Half that number killed or seriously wounded is more in line with verifiable data – still quite serious.)

“At least 62 soldiers killed and hundreds injured since the start of October.” ~500 IDF troops have been killed since post-10/7/23 offensive operations began. Mideast Eye