{"id":23348,"date":"2018-10-29T10:48:58","date_gmt":"2018-10-29T14:48:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=23348"},"modified":"2024-10-01T11:20:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T15:20:02","slug":"what-north-korea-wants-in-nuclear-arms-negotiations-a-comment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/what-north-korea-wants-in-nuclear-arms-negotiations-a-comment\/","title":{"rendered":"Noted: What North Korea wants in nuclear arms negotiations"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight<\/p>\n

Following is a comment to an article by Duyeon Kim<\/a>, “How to tell if North Korea is serious about denuclearization<\/a>,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em>, 29 October 2018, midway between the Singapore Summit and the Hanoi Summit.<\/span><\/p>\n

This comment makes one key point that many American analysts ignore:<\/p>\n

North Korea has in the past and will now insist that negotiations about Korean nuclear disarmament include any regional nuclear capabilities which it considers to be threats to its security.\u00a0 In this comment, I am not taking a position on what the particular outcome of nuclear disarmament negotiations should be.\u00a0 Rather, I am saying that productive negotiations must take account of North Korea’s de-facto status as a nuclear weapon state and its core security interests.<\/p>\n

\"Kim<\/p>\n

Ms. Kim\u2019s analysis of what might constitute serious \u201cdenuclearization\u201d steps by North Korea would be quite useful if the issue was unilateral disarmament of the North. Quite clearly though, the context of negotiations is \u201cdenuclearization of the peninsula\u201d which includes changes in the military postures of South Korea and the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n

At this early stage of negotiations North Korea, South Korea, and the U.S. are assiduously avoiding discussing these important complicating factors, yet productive discussions about \u201cpeninsular disarmament\u201d will determine whether there will eventually be denuclearization of North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

We can not expect North Korea to give up nuclear weaponry (and certainly not irreversibly) unless it no longer faces a threat of nuclear weapons in and about the Korean Peninsula. The North Koreans appear to be realists in this regard. No paper treaty or written assurances will substitute for changes in hardware available to potential enemies.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is time for analysts in the U.S. to face the reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea unlikely to disarm itself until there are decades of peace and good relations with its neighbors, including South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the US Navy and Air Force.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are some things that North Korea logically will ask for along the way to disarmament: equivalent international inspections and fissile material controls in South Korea (and even Japan); no nuclear-capable aircraft or ships visiting South Korea; no nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles deployed on US ships within range of North Korea; no intermediate-range nuclear missiles in the region\u2026 These are a few of the things North Korean negotiators are likely to get around to mentioning in terms of their judging whether the U.S. and South Korea are \u201cserious about denuclearization.”<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight Following is a comment to an article by Duyeon Kim, “How to tell if North Korea is serious about denuclearization,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 29 October 2018, midway between the Singapore Summit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reset-defense-blog"],"yoast_head":"\nNoted: What North Korea wants in nuclear arms negotiations – Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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