{"id":23395,"date":"2021-12-22T21:53:19","date_gmt":"2021-12-23T02:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=23395"},"modified":"2021-12-27T15:48:47","modified_gmt":"2021-12-27T20:48:47","slug":"to-end-americas-longest-war-the-us-korea-alliance-must-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/to-end-americas-longest-war-the-us-korea-alliance-must-change\/","title":{"rendered":"To End America\u2019s Longest War the US-Korea Alliance Must Change"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight, originally published by the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy<\/a>, 22 December 2021.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

While visiting Australia in mid-December, South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced that North Korea, China, South Korea, and the United States have agreed on an end-of-war declaration<\/a> at the \u201cfundamental and principle levels\u201d. Since 1953, when an armistice ended large-scale combat on the Korean Peninsula, the parties to that war have not signed a peace treaty. Instead, they have prepared for war as though it could or should resume at a moment\u2019s notice.<\/p>\n

Moon first proposed the \u2018end-of-war declaration\u2019 in a speech before the UN in 2019. He renewed that call before that same body this past September, inviting diplomats from the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea to meet, negotiate, and sign a declaration. He also called<\/a> for including China in a four-party declaration. The \u2018end-of-war\u2019 notion is formulated as an alternative to a formal peace treaty that remains politically out of reach, especially after the failure of the Hanoi Summit in 2019. As such, President Moon hoped that 3- or 4-party talks might lead to a renewal of negotiations regarding the broader issues of peninsular peace.<\/p>\n

In his Canberra remarks, Moon pointed out that \u201cwe are not able to sit down for a negotiation on declarations,\u201d because of Pyongyang\u2019s insistence that the U.S. and South Korea \u201cend hostile policies\u201d before any talks could proceed. As the Deputy Director of the Publicity and Information Department of North Korea\u2019s ruling Workers\u2019 Party Kim Yo-jong stated<\/a> in September, the first step is to \u201censure mutual respect toward one another and abandon prejudiced views, harshly hostile policies and unfair double standards toward the other side.\u201d Of course, this conditionality lacks specificity. Yet, judging from previous North Korean negotiating positions, Pyongyang is likely signaling that moving to meaningful negotiations will require the U.S. to provide offers of sanctions relief and reduce its military presence and joint exercises in the South.<\/p>\n

The United States, for its part, still insists on the unilateral nuclear disarmament of North Korea. Numerous issues of mutual interest to Pyongyang and Seoul are considered secondary and contingent on nuclear disarmament. Given that North Korea is now a (minor) nuclear power that considers nuclear weaponry essential to its strategic posture, Washington\u2019s position is equivalent to a refusal to negotiate from Pyongyang\u2019s perspective. Until quite recently, the Biden administration\u2019s behavior suggested it had adopted the Obama administration\u2019s notion of \u201cstrategic patience,\u201d a stance that amounts to taking no actual diplomatic initiatives. Recently, this has changed<\/a>\u2014with the U.S. now signaling that it is ready to talk, take a \u201cstep-by-step\u201d approach, and honor the framework agreed upon in the 2018 Singapore Joint Statement made by Kim and Trump.<\/p>\n

A step-by-s\"\"<\/a>tep process will mean give and take. Moreover, it implies that the U.S. might ultimately have to settle for some tempering of the North\u2019s nuclear arsenal rather than the complete, verifiable, and irreversible disarmament (CVID) it was originally seeking. Not that Washington is ready to acknowledge this publicly. In fact, the recent G7 meeting statement<\/a> reasserted the CVID standard.<\/p>\n

Washington might argue that its affirmation of CVID is justified given that the Singapore Statement<\/a> includes a provision which declares: \u201cReaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.\u201d Nevertheless, the formulation \u201cdenuclearization of the Korean Peninsula\u201d is a subject of contention, because North Korea and the United States interpret its meaning differently<\/a>.<\/p>\n

By reaffirming the Singapore Joint Statement as a basis for negotiations, however, the U.S. hints that it is prepared to negotiate with the North on the precise meaning of \u201cPeninsula Denuclearization\u201d. For instance, might the U.S. eventually agree to stop flying dual-capable (nuclear and conventional) bombers over the peninsula?<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department recently announced<\/a> new \u2018human rights\u2019 sanctions, blacklisting North Korea\u2019s Central Public Prosecutors Office, a former Minister of Social Security, and the new Minister of People\u2019s Armed Forces. Whatever value these sanctions might have in their particulars, they certainly send a mixed message to North Korea about prioritizing peace and disarmament negotiations.<\/p>\n

Things change, however, and the situation in Korea is not stable. For several years, both North and South Korea have been in a short-to-medium range missile arms race, developing and testing missiles carrying greater payloads over longer distances. As Sangsoo Lee of the Stockholm Korea Center observes<\/a>: \u201cWhat we are witnessing today on the Korean Peninsula is the same kind of action-reaction dynamic that developed between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War\u2014a destabilizing and expensive arms race.\u201d This rings true, as, despite Moon\u2019s desires for peninsular peace, he has not as of yet demonstrated the political will to reign in ROK\u2019s military establishment.<\/p>\n

In 2018 Pyongyang decided, at the urging of Russia and China, to induce negotiations with the U.S. by initiating a moratorium on testing new ICBMs and nuclear warheads. However, as time goes by, Chairman Kim faces increasing pressure from his military to end this moratorium. Pressure is unlikely to subside, for Military planners in the North are aware that the U.S. has been preparing<\/a> its Air Force and Navy for conventional preemptive operations to prevent the successful wartime use of North Korean nuclear weapons. Pyongyang also understands that the deterrent value of its partially-developed
\nnuclear arsenal diminishes over time absent ongoing improvements, which require periodic testing. Therefore, if serious negotiations do not begin soon, one could expect the DPRK to end its testing restraint.<\/p>\n

While many in Washington are content with a strategy of waiting patiently for sanctions to force Pyongyang\u2019s capitulation, this approach overlooks how existentially critical nuclear weaponry has become in North Korea\u2019s strategic calculus. Without an adequate national security alternative, Pyongyang will most likely choose to suffer indefinitely under the economic pain of sanctions, however severe.<\/p>\n

President Moon has consistently sought a path toward peace with North Korea. Achievements in this regard include facilitating several intra-Korean summits and the three meetings between Trump and Kim. Economic opening to North Korea has been at the core of Moon\u2019s program, but Washington\u2019s sanctions regime has blocked most initiatives. The end-of-war declaration, agreed to \u201cin principle\u201d by four major stakeholder nations, may well be the last significant peace initiative of his term. Yet, even if it goes no further than the symbolic agreement announced in Canberra, Moon, as a practical politician, likely consoles himself with a secondary objective of burnishing his political party\u2019s reputation for pursuing peace during the run-up to the next election.<\/p>\n

The impasse in Korea raises profound questions about the U.S.-South Korea alliance. What is an alliance\u2019s value for peace and security if a faraway great power effectively vetoes peace initiatives by a middle power dealing with a potential war situation in its immediate neighborhood? Of course, some will argue this to be simply the latest example of Thucydides\u2019 Melian dilemma: \u201cThe strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.\u201d But this simple formulation never captures the full complexity or mutability of the real world. It did not do so for the Athenians, nor the Melians, and neither does it for us today.<\/p>\n

Alliances cannot and do not last forever. To endure from one era to another, they must adapt and change. If Washington returns to old habits of leveraging its hegemonic will to control affairs on the Korean Peninsula, it may reap the unintended consequence of hastening the end of the alliance. After all, South Korea is much stronger economically and militarily than it was a few decades ago. It has earned substantial agency in its Northeast Asian geostrategic maneuvers, and it demands certain strategic autonomy independent from Washington. The U.S. would be wise to recognize this and accommodate Seoul. A relationship of partners will be more productive than the archaic patron-client one that actively shuns South Korean interest. And such strategic recalibration would come with the added benefit of helping end America\u2019s longest war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A relationship of partners will be more productive than the archaic patron-client one that actively shuns South Korean interest. And such strategic recalibration would come with the added benefit of helping end America\u2019s longest war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reset-defense-blog"],"yoast_head":"\nTo End America\u2019s Longest War the US-Korea Alliance Must Change – Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/to-end-americas-longest-war-the-us-korea-alliance-must-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"To End America\u2019s Longest War the US-Korea Alliance Must Change – Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A relationship of partners will be more productive than the archaic patron-client one that actively shuns South Korean interest. 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