{"id":23641,"date":"2019-02-19T16:24:56","date_gmt":"2019-02-19T21:24:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=23641"},"modified":"2024-10-08T15:23:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T19:23:12","slug":"transactional-diplomacy-isnt-working-with-north-korea-relational-diplomacy-might","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/transactional-diplomacy-isnt-working-with-north-korea-relational-diplomacy-might\/","title":{"rendered":"Transactional diplomacy isn\u2019t working with North Korea \u2013 relational diplomacy might"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight, 19 February 2019.\u00a0 A version of this article appeared in\u00a0The National Interest <\/em>on 19 February 2019.\u00a0 This revised version was published on the PDA website on 3 February 2022.<\/p>\n

During meetings in late 2017 with nearly two dozen regional security specialists in Northeast Asia, I asked whether North Korea was a de facto nuclear-weapon state<\/em>. Their answer almost always was, \u201cOf course!\u201d Then, these interlocutors sometimes volunteered the advice that it would be wise for the United States to adapt its regional policy according to the new reality.<\/p>\n

\"dprksoldiers\"<\/a> Those conversations came to mind as I read Robert E. Kelly\u2019s recent op-ed<\/a> that argues maintaining the status quo with North Korea is \u201cbetter than a bad deal.\u201d Kelly claims that \u201cthe world can learn to adjust to a nuclearized North Korea.\u201d I agree while noting that many countries in Northeast Asia have been making that adjustment for years now. It is no longer in the U.S. national interest to pursue policies premised on denying North Korea’s status as a de facto nuclear power.<\/p>\n

Kelly writes: \u201cNorth Korea will almost certainly insist on keeping most of its warheads.\u201d Indeed, the notion is still prevalent in Washington that North Korea will agree to disarm unilaterally. However, North Korea has paid a dear price to obtain nuclear weaponry. Therefore, there is almost no chance it will agree to unilateral disarmament.<\/p>\n

U.S. nuclear capability is already enormously superior to North Korea\u2019s minimum deterrent. North Korea surely understands that. Therefore, there is reasonable assurance that the deterrence of North Korea will hold firm for decades to come.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the United States, citing the threat of North Korean nukes, intends to enhance<\/em> its northeast Asian nuclear and anti-missile posture. In turn, the North will likely build more bombs and missiles. As a result, the chance to limit their nuclear program in negotiations will eventually be lost.<\/p>\n

Kelly concludes the article, saying, \u201cSlow-but-steady, reciprocal, and verifiable concessions is still the best way forward.\u201d I concur, but I propose an edit to his diplomatic guidance, thus: \u201cSlow-but-steady, reciprocal, and verifiable steps toward a mutually-acceptable political future for Korea —\u00a0 including relevant disarmament.\u201d<\/p>\n

What is the essential and significant difference in my re-write? The insertion of the phrase \u201csteps toward a mutually-acceptable political future\u201d is the key. I was introduced to this construction by the paper A Theory of Engagement with North Korea<\/em><\/a> authored by Christopher C. Lawrence when he was a post-doc fellow at Harvard\u2019s Kennedy School.<\/p>\n

In his paper, Lawrence seeks to move the discourse from one of transactional diplomacy with its talk of carrots and sticks<\/em>\u00a0and concessions<\/em> to one of relational diplomacy wherein the first task is to discover and establish a mutually-acceptable and shared political goal. From there, the parties negotiate particular steps (especially ones that involve costly physical commitments) by which the parties move slowly and steadily toward the goal. The mutuality of the goal provides the incentive to cooperate. This is a more productive approach to diplomacy, especially in cases where parties must overcome low levels of trust and a long history of conflict.<\/p>\n

Robert Kelly\u2019s preferred alternative to war or a bad deal is the status quo which he describes as \u201ccontaining and deterring, sanctioning and isolating North Korea.\u201d Yes, this might be a better option than starting a counter-proliferation war in which millions are likely to die. However, the status quo is a failed approach to Korean conflict and tension; a failed policy that is at least partially responsible for North Korea becoming a small but real nuclear power.<\/p>\n

Rather than continue to isolate North Korea, the new realities require America to bring nuclear North Korea into as close a relationship as possible\u2014so that there are opportunities to influence the North in regards to responsibly and safely managing its nuclear weaponry. It is hard to imagine such trust between North Korea and the United States at this time, but the United States can encourage China to play a role in persuading North Korea.\u00a0 Chinese and American interests align very closely regarding nuclear safety and restraint.<\/p>\n

This is not the place to explore the fifty ways to build a constructive relationship with the North.\u00a0 I will, instead, mention that one open way that sits in plain view. Our ally, the Republic of Korea, has actively built a better relationship with the North during the last year. The Panmunjeom Declaration of 2018<\/a> set out in general terms the aspirations of a shared North-South Korean mutually acceptable political future.<\/p>\n

Reverting to the status quo of isolating the North is a remarkably uncreative response to the security dilemmas of the moment. Instead, the United States will strengthen its Korean alliance while opening many paths to an acceptable political future for Korea by fully supporting its ally in building out the aspirations for Korean peace found in the Panmunjom declaration.<\/p>\n

~~<\/p>\n

For a detailed description of how relational diplomacy<\/em> can be employed to achieve a safe and effective conventional forces drawdown on the Korean Peninsula as part of a Korean peace process see Charles Knight, A Path to Reductions of Conventional Forces on the Korean Peninsula<\/em>.\u00a0 \u27aa PDF<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight, 19 February 2019.\u00a0 A version of this article appeared in\u00a0The National Interest on 19 February 2019.\u00a0 This revised version was published on the PDA website on 3 February 2022. 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