{"id":24693,"date":"2023-02-02T15:57:41","date_gmt":"2023-02-02T20:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=24693"},"modified":"2023-02-11T11:01:09","modified_gmt":"2023-02-11T16:01:09","slug":"tempting-armageddon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/tempting-armageddon\/","title":{"rendered":"Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising &#8211; but why?\u00a0 Neither Washington nor Brussels fully apprehend the risk.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-24692\" src=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-250x153.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"153\" srcset=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-250x153.jpg 250w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-500x305.jpg 500w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-106x65.jpg 106w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027.jpg 613w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/>by Carl Conetta, 02 Feb 2023 &#8211; Full report: <a href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html\"><strong>HTML<\/strong><\/a> or <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/fulltext\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.pdf\">PDF<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0 Summary: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/Summary-Tempting-Armageddon-in-Russia-Ukraine-War.html\">HTML<\/a><\/strong> or <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/fulltext\/Summary-Tempting-Armageddon-in-Russia-Ukraine-War.pdf\">PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This article tracks and assesses the evolution of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine crisis, the related interplay between Moscow and Washington, the factors driving Russian thinking on nuclear use, the nuclear options available to Russia, and why US-NATO leaders and hawkish observers dismiss these options as impracticable. We conclude that the probability of Russian nuclear use, although conditionally modest, is rising as Ukraine&#8217;s armed forces push forward toward Crimea and the Russian border while also increasing their retaliatory attacks on recognized Russian territory. On its present trajectory, the crisis will soon run a risk of nuclear conflict greater than that experienced during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising &#8211; but why?\u00a0 Neither Washington nor Brussels fully apprehend the risk. by Carl Conetta, 02 Feb 2023 &#8211; Full report: HTML or PDF\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[22,34,3,9,47,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-featured","category-publications","category-regional-security","category-ukraine-war","category-wars-and-military-operations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy &#8211; Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy &#8211; Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The probability of Russian nuclear use related to the Ukraine war is rising &#8211; but why?\u00a0 Neither Washington nor Brussels fully apprehend the risk. by Carl Conetta, 02 Feb 2023 &#8211; Full report: HTML or PDF\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Project-on-Defense-Alternatives\/133638503385018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-02T20:57:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-11T16:01:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-250x153.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carl Conetta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@defensealt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@defensealt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carl Conetta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"ScholarlyArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/tempting-armageddon\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carl Conetta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e5f32f920668cc51e114f8faf308f75b\"},\"headline\":\"Tempting Armageddon: The Likelihood of Russian Nuclear Use is Misconstrued in Western Policy\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-02T20:57:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-02-11T16:01:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/tempting-armageddon\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":158,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/tempting-armageddon-russia-ukraine-war-230202.html#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/Banner-image-SRno15_1027-250x153.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Europe\",\"Featured\",\"Publications\",\"Regional Security\",\"Ukraine War\",\"Wars &amp; 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