{"id":25004,"date":"2024-09-26T13:58:51","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T17:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=25004"},"modified":"2024-09-26T13:58:51","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T17:58:51","slug":"putin-announces-significant-change-in-russian-nuclear-use-doctrine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/putin-announces-significant-change-in-russian-nuclear-use-doctrine\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin Announces Significant Change in Russian Nuclear Use Doctrine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-25001\" src=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-250x188.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"188\" srcset=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-250x188.jpg 250w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-500x375.jpg 500w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-106x80.jpg 106w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/russian-launch4.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/>Carl Conetta, 26 Sept 2024<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to the Security Council on Sept 25, 2024, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin asserted that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/604681-russia-putin-nuclear-response\/\">Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state\u2026 supported by a nuclear power should be treated as their joint attack.<\/a>\u201d What\u2019s the implication of this?<\/p>\n<p>Putin&#8217;s proposition simply raises the threat potential that he attributes to the Ukraine war. Asserting a critical linkage to a nuclear state supposedly increases the existential valence of the war. Of course, he has called it a &#8220;proxy war&#8221; before, but now he&#8217;s emphasizing that the involvement of a nuclear-weapon state lowers the threshold for nuclear use..<em>.in some new ways,<\/em> as noted below.<\/p>\n<p>Putin also said a nuclear response would be considered if Moscow receives \u201creliable information\u201d about a \u201cmassive\u201d missile, drone, or piloted aircraft strike against Russia or Belarus. What\u2019s more, he declared that nuclear weapons might be used to blunt a \u201ccritical threat to either states\u2019 sovereignty [even] through the use of conventional weapons\u201d alone. This latter proposition is not actually new.<\/p>\n<p>Existing doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in several cases of conventional attack &#8211; not only existential challenges, but also those seeking to blunt Russia\u2019s nuclear retaliatory capacity. (A relevant question: Does part of that retaliatory capacity now reside in Belarus?)<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s not clear and demands clarification is, first, whether \u201creliable information\u201d of a massive aerial attack will <em>by the very fact of its perceived &#8220;massiveness&#8221;<\/em> be taken to possible warrant a nuclear response even if the enemy may be using conventional means only? In other words, Putin may be warning: don\u2019t attempt a massive conventional aerial attack because while underway it will be treated as a challenge to Russian nuclear retaliatory capacity or sovereignty &#8211; a challenge worthy of a nuclear riposte.<\/p>\n<p>A second needed clarification pertains to whether a \u201cmassive\u201d aerial attack launched by Ukraine alone might likewise warrant a nuclear response <em>by virtue of its &#8220;massiveness&#8221; and the Ukraine-NATO link.<\/em> This is a lower threshold for use than understood previously. Of course, if this is what Putin is implying, the fact of his saying it doesn\u2019t <em>necessarily<\/em> make it more than another weak red line. Not necessarily. Ukraine has previously <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/09\/02\/europe\/ukraine-big-drone-attack-russia-intl-hnk\/index.html\">attacked Russia with well-over 100 drones<\/a> simultaneously. What response would a much larger attack bring &#8211; especially if employing NATO ground-based missiles and F16-launched NATO-built cruise missiles?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-25002\" src=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf-500x281.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf-500x281.jpg 500w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf-250x141.jpg 250w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf-106x60.jpg 106w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/66f4428b85f5400ee17c7adf.jpg 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Carl Conetta, 26 Sept 2024 Speaking to the Security Council on Sept 25, 2024, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin asserted that \u201cAggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state\u2026 supported by a nuclear power should be treated as<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reset-defense-blog"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Putin Announces Significant Change in Russian Nuclear Use Doctrine &#8211; Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/putin-announces-significant-change-in-russian-nuclear-use-doctrine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Putin Announces Significant Change in Russian Nuclear Use Doctrine &#8211; Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carl Conetta, 26 Sept 2024 Speaking to the Security Council on Sept 25, 2024, Russian Pres. 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