{"id":25547,"date":"2025-02-20T16:38:50","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T21:38:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=25547"},"modified":"2025-02-23T08:49:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-23T13:49:51","slug":"ukraine-a-future-with-a-self-sustaining-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-a-future-with-a-self-sustaining-defense\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: Securing Its Future with a Self-Sustaining Defense"},"content":{"rendered":"
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by Charles Knight, 20 February 2025<\/div>\n
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On February 12th, the new Secretary of Defense of the United States, Pete Hegseth, attended the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels and addressed officials from some 50 nations. He was succinct and blunt in announcing the Trump administration\u2019s policy for \u201cstopping the fighting [in Ukraine] and reaching an enduring peace.\u201d1<\/a><\/span> He told the group that Trump insists that \u201c\u2026this war must end\u2026by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table.\u201d Hegseth misspoke. \u201cThe table\u201d he refers to is plural and of several types: tables, rooms, hallways, or Tweets. Ukraine was not invited to the Saudi-hosted negotiations between Russia and the U.S.!<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

With the new radical-right administration in power in Washington, Ukraine has lost its primary war sponsor. It is an understatement to say international politics looks grim for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Ukraine must quickly discover and adopt new means to secure itself<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

We are pleased to announce that Lutz Unterseher’s book Ukraine: Options for a Confidence-Building Defense<\/span><\/a><\/strong> is now available in English for the first time. It is posted on our website as a free guest publication<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The book offers a military option for Ukraine that fits the present political\/military crisis.\u00a0 The author says his option can \u201chelp [the Ukrainian] people to help themselves.\u201d Lutz continues,<\/p>\n

It is about self-sustaining, emphatically defensive military protection: without integration into a military alliance and suitable as a possible building block of an all-European security system.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Lutz Unterseher, Ukraine: Options for a Confidence-Building Defense<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>LIT, Berlin, 2024. [PDF<\/a>]<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

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Considering that extraordinary changes are ongoing\u00a0and that the book was published in German almost a year ago, I asked Lutz to provide a brief, updated introduction.\u00a0 It follows.<\/p>\n

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Some Reflections on Recent Events Regarding Ukraine and Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n

by Lutz Unterseher, February 2025<\/p>\n

The North Atlantic Alliance (aka, NATO) was a fabrication built on illusion. It was founded on the belief, mainly held by Europeans, that the United States would \u2013 in the face of a threat from the East \u2013 be willing to compensate for the relative weakness of NATO frontline forces (yet another myth) by going nuclear with a first-use of battlefield weapons and linking this deterrence<\/em>\u00a0to the strategic arsenal under the singular command of the U.S president. In the final years of the Cold War, after the Soviet Union had reached strategic nuclear parity with the U.S., an increasing number of U.S. security experts and politicians conceived of battlefield nukes as playing a role in a\u00a0limited war<\/em>\u00a0in Europe.\u00a0Finis Germaniae<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Monsieur Trump has now ended this belief system, known under the term extended deterrence,\u00a0<\/em>which served as the doctrinal basis for U.S. dominance over what had been euphemistically called\u00a0partners<\/em>\u00a0for over half a century. This radical policy change has one essential advantage: namely, clarity.<\/p>\n

Given the problems of cohesion of the Europeans, which became evident in their dealing with Monsieur Putin’s murderous regime, Trump has opted for another strategy to ensure American dominance.<\/p>\n

He will seek bilateral relations with individual European countries, promising military support only if they dance to his fiddle. Those who cannot be brought to the dance floor, perhaps trying to preserve some degree of European unity, are being told, as the American umbrella<\/em>\u00a0is folding, to pay much more for their defense. Trump, thereby, expects to weaken Europe as a competitor in the world market.<\/p>\n

By excluding Europeans from the Russian-American talks aimed at ending the Ukraine war, Trump has humiliated them and thereby de facto<\/em>\u00a0buried NATO as an entity in its own right. At the same time, he is telling individual European nations to earmark troops for an ill-defined\u00a0security guarantee\u00a0<\/em>for Ukraine, a force the U.S. will not contribute its troops to. By bypassing NATO, Trump’s developing global strategy seeks to use European national forces as auxiliaries under U.S. suzerainty.<\/p>\n

A better way for Ukraine and Europe, promising stability with affordability<\/strong>, can be had by Ukraine adopting a security regime of Confidence-Building Defense \u2013 enabling that country to defend itself. This posture, on the one hand, avoids provoking the other side (thereby defusing the situation) and, on the other hand, exploits the advantages inherent to the defense: achieving deterrence through robust denial. (After all, the Russian army can no longer be considered a giant.)<\/p>\n

An essential condition for making such a scheme work is that the Ukrainian economy must get on a dynamic upward path and that many\u2014especially young\u2014refugees can be motivated to return. Both conditions depend on Ukraine’s speedy integration into the EU\u2014a union that Trumpist machinations have not yet undermined, and that is not bleeding out due to outrageous military expenditures.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Here is a quick guide to reading the book:<\/p>\n

It is a short book\u201487 pages\u2014so you can read it all in one sitting, which we recommend. However, if you want to quickly get to the \u2018meat\u2019<\/em>\u00a0of the military option for Ukraine, go to the\u00a0Military Security\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>section, starting on\u00a0page 45<\/strong>. The\u00a0\u2018hard military stuff,\u2019<\/em>\u00a0including an illustrative force structure and cost estimate, is in\u00a0The Path to Realisation<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0section, starting on\u00a0page 73<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Lutz Unterseher,\u00a0Ukraine: Options for a Confidence-Building Defense<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>LIT, Berlin, 2024.\u00a0[PDF]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/picture>Lutz Unterseher,\u00a0Ukraine: Options for a Confidence-Building Defense<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>LIT, Berlin, 2024.\u00a0[PDF]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Lutz Unterseher’s many books are available\u00a0<\/span>here<\/a><\/span>, including this one in paperback.<\/span><\/h6>\n
More on <\/span>Confidence-Building Defense\u00a0<\/strong>are available <\/span>here<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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1<\/a>\u00a0 Hegseth\u2019s short statement specifies at least a dozen radical changes in U.S. policy regarding Ukraine and Europe\u2019s security. I will not recount them here. Instead, I refer you to the source, which is well worth viewing or reading.<\/p>\n

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Video:\u00a0https:\/\/www.defense.gov\/Multimedia\/Videos\/videoid\/952219\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Transcript:\u00a0https:\/\/www.defense.gov\/News\/Speeches\/Speech\/Article\/4064113\/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-ukraine-defense-contact\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Charles Knight, 20 February 2025 On February 12th, the new Secretary of Defense of the United States, Pete Hegseth, attended the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels and addressed officials from some 50 nations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reset-defense-blog"],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine: Securing Its Future with a Self-Sustaining Defense – Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Offering a 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