{"id":25742,"date":"2026-01-13T04:06:58","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T09:06:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=25742"},"modified":"2026-01-18T18:55:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T23:55:00","slug":"ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Carl Conetta, 12 January 2026 – Full text\u21d2 HTML<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0– PDF<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America\u2019s European partners. This article examines how the leading official proposals fell short. And it presents two, simpler proposals better aligned with battlefield realities. The article also explores the evolution of US, Ukrainian, Russian, and West European public opinion on the war.<\/p>\n

The Russia-Ukraine war has been a disaster – not only for the two principal combatants, who together have suffered 300,000 deaths, but for the entire world. This fact drives the imperative to end this conflict forthwith via negotiated compromise. Yet, as the article shows, none of the official proposals embrace this imperative. Instead, all exhibit efforts to win advantage for one side or the other. They are instances of diplo-fare – war by means of diplomacy. As such, their aim may be rejection not agreement, with an eye toward painting one\u2019s opponent as intransigent and, in this way, build support for continuing the fight – or, in the case of President Trump\u2019s preference, establish a pretext for US withdrawal.<\/p>\n

The simplest proposals may be the most practicable but these must reflect current battlefield realities rather than attempting to \u201ccorrect\u201d or “re-balance” them. This principle guides the independent cease-fire options suggested in this article. Otherwise, the article explores the possibility that Europe\u2019s so-called Coalition of the Willing<\/em> will respond to any serious fracture of Kyiv\u2019s effort – a distinct possibility – by establishing a new nuclearized Europe-vs-Russia \u201ccentral front\u201d inside<\/em> Ukraine. (With an Appendix<\/a> summarizing the official November and December peace proposal texts.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carl Conetta, 12 January 2026 – Full text\u21d2 HTML\u00a0– PDF During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America\u2019s European partners. This article examines how the leading<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[22,34,47,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-featured","category-ukraine-war","category-wars-and-military-operations"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carl Conetta, 12 January 2026 – Full text\u21d2 HTML\u00a0– PDF During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America\u2019s European partners. This article examines how the leading\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Project on Defense Alternatives\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Project-on-Defense-Alternatives\/133638503385018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carl Conetta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@defensealt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@defensealt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carl Conetta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"ScholarlyArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carl Conetta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e5f32f920668cc51e114f8faf308f75b\"},\"headline\":\"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":287,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143-250x167.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Europe\",\"Featured\",\"Ukraine War\",\"Wars & Military Operations\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":[\"WebPage\",\"AboutPage\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143-250x167.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg\",\"width\":600,\"height\":400},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publications\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/category\\\/publications\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Wars & Military Operations\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/category\\\/publications\\\/wars-and-military-operations\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Ukraine War\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/category\\\/publications\\\/wars-and-military-operations\\\/ukraine-war\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":5,\"name\":\"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/\",\"name\":\"Project on Defense Alternatives\",\"description\":\"adapting defense policy to emerging challenges and opportunities\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Project on Defense Alternatives\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/09\\\/bannerviolet21-e1618955985362.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/09\\\/bannerviolet21-e1618955985362.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":180,\"caption\":\"Project on Defense Alternatives\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Project-on-Defense-Alternatives\\\/133638503385018\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/defensealt\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e5f32f920668cc51e114f8faf308f75b\",\"name\":\"Carl Conetta\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/defensealt\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/comw.org\\\/pda\\\/author\\\/cconetta\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives","og_description":"Carl Conetta, 12 January 2026 – Full text\u21d2 HTML\u00a0– PDF During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America\u2019s European partners. This article examines how the leading","og_url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/","og_site_name":"Project on Defense Alternatives","article_publisher":"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Project-on-Defense-Alternatives\/133638503385018","article_published_time":"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":600,"height":400,"url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Carl Conetta","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@defensealt","twitter_site":"@defensealt","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Carl Conetta","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"ScholarlyArticle","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/"},"author":{"name":"Carl Conetta","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#\/schema\/person\/e5f32f920668cc51e114f8faf308f75b"},"headline":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail","datePublished":"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00","dateModified":"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/"},"wordCount":287,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143-250x167.jpg","articleSection":["Europe","Featured","Ukraine War","Wars & Military Operations"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["WebPage","AboutPage"],"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/","url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/","name":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail – Project on Defense Alternatives","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143-250x167.jpg","datePublished":"2026-01-13T09:06:58+00:00","dateModified":"2026-01-18T23:55:00+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00_052322_IrpinCityVisit_6143.jpg","width":600,"height":400},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/ukraine-war-how-peace-plans-might-work-and-why-they-will-fail\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Publications","item":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/category\/publications\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Wars & Military Operations","item":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/category\/publications\/wars-and-military-operations\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Ukraine War","item":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/category\/publications\/wars-and-military-operations\/ukraine-war\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":5,"name":"The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#website","url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/","name":"Project on Defense Alternatives","description":"adapting defense policy to emerging challenges and opportunities","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#organization","name":"Project on Defense Alternatives","url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/bannerviolet21-e1618955985362.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/bannerviolet21-e1618955985362.jpg","width":900,"height":180,"caption":"Project on Defense Alternatives"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Project-on-Defense-Alternatives\/133638503385018","https:\/\/x.com\/defensealt"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/#\/schema\/person\/e5f32f920668cc51e114f8faf308f75b","name":"Carl Conetta","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/defensealt"],"url":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/author\/cconetta\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25742"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25763,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25742\/revisions\/25763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}