{"id":25765,"date":"2026-01-01T09:54:05","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T14:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/?p=25765"},"modified":"2026-01-24T12:34:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T17:34:57","slug":"variables-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/variables-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Variables of War"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">By Lutz Unterseher, guest publication, 01 January 2026.\u00a0 <strong>\u27aa see full-text: \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/comw.org\/pda\/fulltext\/2601%20Unterseher%20-%20Variables_of_War.pdf\">PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity.\u00a0 Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war&#8217;s outbreak. <span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-sans font-semimedium visRefresh2026Fonts:font-bold text-base first:mt-0\">The formal causal argument:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">War\u2019s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the \u201ccult of the offensive\u201d).<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further \u201csufficient condition\u201d is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or \u201copen flanks\u201d in the opponent\u2019s posture.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives\/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-sans font-semimedium visRefresh2026Fonts:font-bold text-base first:mt-0\">Empirical illustrations of opportunity and miscalculation:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Drawing on John Mearsheimer\u2019s study of deterrence failure, the text notes that conventional deterrence often fails when states concentrate on offensive or counteroffensive preparations and neglect robust territorial defense, thereby offering exploitable weak points.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The German offensive through the Ardennes in 1940 exemplifies this: France\u2019s incomplete Maginot Line and the misdeployment of its most modern forces created an open flank that German armored units exploited, enabling a rapid breakthrough.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-sans font-semimedium visRefresh2026Fonts:font-bold text-base first:mt-0\">Policy lesson: defense posture and gendered perceptions:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The author\u2019s policy inference is that states should avoid inviting attack by concentrating forces for offensives and instead establish \u201cdefensive control of space\u201d: dispersed, resilient, terrain\u2011using dispositions that leave no open flanks and sap an intruder\u2019s speed and momentum, an idea linked to Confidence\u2011Building Defense concepts.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; scrollbar-color: initial; scrollbar-width: initial; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 \/ .5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-inline-start: 0.375em; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; border: 0px solid oklch(var(--foreground-subtler-color));\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Such structurally deterrent postures may be undervalued because of the gendered coding of offense as active and initiative\u2011rich masculinity, versus the coding of defense as inactive and passive femininity, leading offensive\u2011minded and sexist elites to discount the real capacity of defensive systems to frustrate attacks.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"[PDF] War Is in the Error Term\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lutz Unterseher, guest publication, 01 January 2026.\u00a0 \u27aa see full-text: \u00a0PDF This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity.\u00a0 Wars<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10167552604075290_133638503385018":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[21,45,22,34,13,8,47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific","category-confidence-building-defense","category-europe","category-featured","category-military-strategic-studies","category-us-defense-policy","category-ukraine-war"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Variables of War &#8211; 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