Project on Defense Alternatives Briefing Report #10
Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
22 April 1999

This Publication Available in Print
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      Executive Summary

1.   Introduction

1.1 The big picture: comprehensive measures of military resources and activity

1.2 Why focus on the Air Force?

1.3 Alternative hypotheses on readiness problems

1.4 A framework for analyzing the readiness condition of the USAF

2.   Parameters of the Recent Crisis

2.1 Mission capable rates and unit readiness

2.2 The delayed effects of budgetary action

2.3 Overall unit readiness ratings

3.    Mid-term Problems: The USAF Pilot Shortage

3.1 The pilot inventory: a tour in time

3.2 A shortage in the making

3.3 The pilot retention problem

3.4 Ending the pilot shortage/surplus cycle

4.   The Long View: Air Force Readiness in the post-Cold War Era

4.1 A twenty year perspective on mission capable rates

4.2 Cannibalization in context

4.3 Optempo and the burden of operations overseas

      4.3.1 Gauging the increase in operational tempo

    Flying hours
    Operational deployments
    Foreign presence & deployments
    Hours spent flying support for operations

      4.3.2 Managing operational tempo

    Uneven burdens: select commands are under stress
    Toward balanced utilization of USAF fighter assets
    Air lift optempo
    Uneven burdens: select systems under stress

      4.3.3 Optempo and training readiness

     Reducing the draw on training time

4.4 Toward a broader view of optempo

      4.4.1 "Tempo" at wing level

      4.4.2 Managing optempo

5.  Conclusion

    Bibliography

    Tables

Table 1. Change in Readiness Resources and Military Personnel 1976-1998

Table 2. Change in Military Personnel and Resources

Table 3. Mission Capable Rates for Aircraft (Active and Reserve Components)

Table 4. Air Combat Command Mission Capable Rate History

Table 5. Air Combat Command Cannibalization Rates

Table 6. USAF Active-Component Attach, Fighter and Interceptor Aircraft

Table 7. USAF Flying Hours Indexed to 1981 (Active-Component, Fighter and Bomber Crews)

Table 8. Change in USAF Personnel Overseas

Table 9. Flying Hours for C-5 and C-41 Aircraft and Pilots, 1989 and 1994

Table 10. Aircraft Mishap and Destroyed Rates Per 100,000 Flying Hours

    Figures

Fig. 1. Change in Readiness Resources and Military Personnel 1976-1998

Fig. 2. Growth in Not Mission Capable and Cannibalization Rates

Fig. 3. Air Force Aggregate Mission Capable Rate

Fig. 4. USAF and ACC Mission Capable Rate History as of 5 Jan 1999

Fig. 5. Discrepancy in Decline of ACC Mission Capable and Unit Readiness Rates, Indexed to 1995

Fig. 6. Air Force Active Component Pilots by Functional Assignment, January 1999

Fig. 7. Percentage Surplus and Deficit of Air Force Active Component Pilot Inventory Relative to Requirements, Historical Data and Projections: 1950 to 2001

Fig. 8. Air Combat Command Mission Capable Rate History

Fig. 9. Air Combat Command Cannibalization Rates

Fig. 10. Temporary Deployment Rates USAF Active Fighter Crews

Fig. 11. Temporary Duty Rates of USAF Active Lift/Refueling Crews

Fig. 12. Temporary Duty Rates of USAF Active C2/EW/Reecce Crews

Fig. 13. Aircraft Mishap and Destroyed Rates Per 100,000 Flying Hours

Fig. 14. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All F-16s: 1988-1995

Fig. 15. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All F-15s

Fig. 16. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All A-10s

Fig. 17. Average Time Allocation: Three Wings, 8th Air Force

Fig. 18. Theoretical Annual Schedule: F-15 Squadron, 1st Fighter Wing

Fig. 19. Actual Schedule: F-15 Squadron, 1st Fighter Wing

Fig. 20. Potential Solution: Fighter Squadron Time Allocation