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Endnotes
1. Anna Clara Arndt and Dr Liviu Horovitz, Nuclear rhetoric and escalation management in Russia’s war against Ukraine: A Chronology (Berlin: German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 03 Sep 2022); “Putin loyalist dials up nuclear rhetoric as NATO partners push for more weapons for Ukraine,” CNN, 19 Jan 2023; “Russian State Duma Head Joins Officials Warning Of Nuclear Retaliation In Ukraine,” RFE/RL, 22 Jan 2023. 2. Gustav Gressel, "Signal and noise: What Russia's nuclear threat means for Europe," European Council on Foreign Relations, 2 Mar 2022. 3. Cuban Missile Crisis ■ National Security Archive, Cuban Missile Crisis at 60, accessed 01 Jan 2023 ■ Avalon Project, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Yale Lillian Goldman Library, accessed 01 Jan 2023. 4. Moscow's perception of NATO as threatening should not be surprising much less incomprehensible. NATO was created in opposition to Moscow and served as the military counter-balance to the Soviet alliance for 40+ years. NATO expansion was both an instance and cause of the shared failure to integrate Russia with the post-Cold War European order. Regarding the structural character of NATO, as analyst Edward Luttwak has pointed out: "NATO is not a security-talking shop but a veritable military force, complete with a hierarchy of operational war headquarters, intelligence and planning staffs, a joint surveillance force of AWACS aircraft, an air defense network with radar from Norway to Turkey and elaborate logistic facilities... In other words, NATO is a fighting force, temporarily at peace." Edward N. Luttwak, oped, "A Look at Expanding NATO,” Washington Post, 06 Jul 1997. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO or its leading members have conducted multiple regime-change efforts using both non-military and military, covert and open means. For Russia (or any nation), the close proximity of a powerful strategic competitor would constitute a potential "threat in being." At minimum, close proximity would give the alliance greater leverage over Moscow. To compensate for NATO's eventual spread to Ukraine, Russia would have to substantially increase surveillance and defenses along a ~2300-km border. It would still be vulnerable to increased cross-border surveillance, espionage, and covert action. And, of course, there's no easy way to compensate for the loss of 1,000-km of defensive depth. Recognizing these realities in no way justifies Moscow's recent actions or its behavior in general. Recognition only serves to illuminate the predictable paths of Russian policy. 5. National Security Strategy of the United States (Washington DC: The White House, Oct 2022). 6. National Security Archive, The Underwater Cuban Missile Crisis at 60, George Washington University, accessed 01 Jan 2023. 7. Center for Naval Analysis, translation, Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence, June 2020. 8. US Dept of Defense, 2022 National Defense Strategy, incorporating the Nuclear Posture Review and the Missile Defense Review (Washington DC: 2022). 9. ibid 10. The cohort of US allies include at least 48 states - namely, other NATO members and major non-NATO allies. "Friends" is a vague term but could include, for instance, other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and select members of the Partnership for Peace not already encompassed by other categories. US Dept of State, “Major Non-NATO Ally Status,” 20 Jan 2021. 11. “‘No other option’: Excerpts of Putin’s speech declaring war,” Al Jazeera, 24 Feb 2022. 12. Russian Nuclear Forces Combat Alert ■ "Russian strategic deterrence forces go on enhanced combat alert - top brass," Tass, 28 Feb 2022. ■ “Here’s what ‘high combat alert’ for Russia’s nuclear forces means,” Washington Post, 28 Feb 2022. Dmitry Stefanovich of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow also speculated that the alert was "primarily about increasing the readiness of automated battle management systems to ensure the delivery of retaliatory launches under any scenario." Pavel Podvig of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research similarly speculated that the Russian "nuclear command and control system received what is known as a preliminary command." ■ Dmitry Stefanovich, "About that special [osobyy] mode of combat readiness of the deterrence forces," @KomissarWhipla, 28 Feb 2022. ■ Pavel Podvig "What is this "special mode of combat duty of the deterrence forces?" @russianforces, 27 Feb 2022. 13. “Russia's Lavrov: A third world war would be nuclear, destructive,” Aljazeera, 02 March 2022. 14. “Biden: Direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be ‘World War III',” The Hill, 11 Mar 2022. 15. “Biden: ‘For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power’,” The Mercury News (AP), 26 Mar 2022. 16. “Biden contradicts aides and reaffirms his call for Putin's overthrow, NY Post, 28 Mar 2022. 17. “Russia Lists Justifications to Use Nuclear Weapons as Ukraine War Drags On,” Newsweek, 26 March 2022. 18. "Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Ukraine and the West: ‘Don't push us into the corner'," PBS News, 28 Mar 2022. 19. “Russia Insists It Won't Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine,” Newsweek, 19 Apr 2022. 20. “On Ukraine visit, Blinken, Austin pledge return of U.S. diplomats, more security aid,” Reuters, 25 April 2022. 21. “Pentagon chief says US wants to see Russia ‘weakened',” The Hill, 25 Apr 2022. 22. “Russia's Lavrov: Do not underestimate threat of nuclear war,” Reuters, 25 Apr 2022. 23. “Angry Putin wields energy, nuclear threats against West,” Washington Times, 27 Apr 2022. 24. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, “Understanding Putin's Nuclear Decision-Making,” War on the Rocks, 22 Mar 2022. 25. "Is the US now officially engaged in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine? It depends who you ask; Part of problem is lack of agreed definition,” Independent, 09 May 2022. Also: Lt Colonel Amos C. Fox, Ukraine and Proxy War: Improving Ontological Shortcomings in Military Thinking, Association of the United States Army, 16 Aug 2022. 26. “White House Rejects Rep. Seth Moulton's Characterization of a ‘Proxy War’ With Russia,” The Intercept, 10 May 2022. Also: US Dept of State Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Stephen Colbert, interview, 19 May 2022. 27. "US Is in a Proxy War With Russia: Panetta," Bloomberg Politics, 17 Mar 2022. 28. Russia-Ukraine War as US-Russia “Proxy War” ■ Hal Brands, "Russia Is Right: The US Is Waging a Proxy War in Ukraine," Washington Post, 10 May 2022. ■ Andrew Buncombe, "It's time to stop pretending what's happening in Ukraine is anything other than a US proxy war," Independent, 22 Dec 2022. ■ Ted
Galen Carpenter, The
NATO vs. Russia Proxy War in Ukraine
Could Become a Real War, Cato Institute, 12
Oct 2022 ■ Robert Farley, "What Exactly Is a Proxy War?" 1945.com, 26 Jun 2022. ■ Geraint Hughes, "Is the war in Ukraine a proxy conflict?" King's College London, 12 Oct 2022. ■ Olivier Knox, "Why Ukraine isn't a ‘proxy war' (yet?)," Washington Post, 03 May 2022. ■ Anatol Lieven, "The horrible dangers of pushing a US proxy war in Ukraine," Responsible Statecraft, 27 Apr 2022. 29. For example, leading up to Russia's retreat across the Dnieper, its standing on the west bank had been deteriorating for weeks. Why? "The arrival of Western weapons - US-made HIMARS artillery systems and M777 howitzers, French-made Caesar howitzers, German-made Panzerhaubitze self-propelled artillery, among others - gave Ukraine the ability to hit Russian targets further behind the front lines from a safer distance." “Bad News Politically, Shrewd Move Militarily? What Russia's Kherson Retreat Means - And What It Doesn't,” RFE/RL, 10 Nov 2022. Also see: ■ Mary Glantz, How Ukraine's Counteroffensives Managed to Break the War's Stalemate Monday (Washington DC: USIP, 19 Sep 2022). ■ Louis-Alexandre Berg and Andrew Radin, “The Ukrainian Military Has Defied Expectations. Here Is How US Security Aid Contributed,” Rand Blog, 29 Mar 2022. 30. Global Financial Aid to Ukraine ■ “Aid to Ukraine Explained in Six Charts,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 18 Nov 2022. ■ “Infographic: Who provides the most aid to Ukraine?” Aljazeera, 9 Dec 2022. ■ “US Security Assistance to Ukraine Breaks All Precedents,” Stimson Center, 20 Oct 2022. ■ “Ukraine Support Tracker, A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine,” Institute for World Economy, 20 Nov 2022. 31. Arms Transfers to Ukraine ■ “Arms Transfers to Ukraine,” Forum on the Arms Trade, Jan 2023. ■ “List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War,” Wikipedia, Jan 2023. ■ “US, NATO countries announce massive weapons package for Ukraine,” NPR, 20 Jan 2023. ■ “Putin Has A Problem: NATO Is Sending Artillery and Tanks to Ukraine,” 1945, 16 April 2022. 32. Training the Ukrainian Military ■ “The Secret of Ukraine's Military Success: Years of NATO Training,” Wall Street Journal, 13 Apr 2022. ■ “DOD Leaders Say Training Ukrainian Forces Is Paying Dividends,” DOD News, 4 May 2022. ■ “The US army base training Ukrainian fighters,” BBC, 8 July 2022. ■ “British special forces ‘are training local troops in Ukraine'," The Times, 15 April 2022. ■ “Ukrainian soldiers training in UK to use British armoured vehicles,” The Guardian, 21 April 2022. ■ “Mozart Group: The Western Ex-military Personnel Training Ukrainian Recruits,” The Guardian, 5 Aug 2022. 33. NATO C3I and RSTA support to Ukraine ■ “NATO surveillance plane watches Russia's activity in Ukraine,” CBC News, 19 Oct 2022. ■ "AWACS: NATO's 'eyes in the sky'," NATO Newsroom, 03 Mar 2022. ■ “How US military aids Ukraine with information, not just weaponry,” CS Monitor, 3 June 2022. ■ “Intel Sharing Between US and Ukraine ‘Revolutionary' Says DIA Director,” USNI News, 18 Mar 2022. ■ “How one US intelligence agency is supporting Ukraine,” C4ISRNET, 25 Apr 2002. ■ “This Is The Armada Of Spy Planes Tracking Russia's Forces Surrounding Ukraine,” Warzone, 18 Feb 2022. ■ “US Air Force E-8 JSTARS Radar Jet Flies Rare Sortie Directly Over Eastern Ukraine,” Warzone, 28 Dec 2021 ■ “The role NATO ISR aircraft are playing in monitoring the war in Ukraine,” Key.Aero, June 2022. ■ “Commando network coordinates flow of weapons and intelligence in Ukraine,” NYT, 26 Jan 2022. ■ “The Role of United States ISR in Ukraine,” Overt Defense, 9 June 2022. 34. “The US has a big new goal in Ukraine: Weaken Russia,” Washington Post, 26 Apr 2022. Also: “US war aims shift in Ukraine — and bring additional risks,” NPR, 27 Apr 2022. 35. “Biden adviser embraces effort to weaken Russia and make example of Putin,” Washington Examiner, 22 July 2022. 36. Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence, testimony, United States Senate Hearing on Worldwide Threats, Washington DC, 10 May 2022. 37. "Russian military leaders' talk of nuclear attack rattles US calculus," Washington Post, 02 Nov 2022. 38. "'Only one option': Pro-Russian commander urges nuclear war with NATO as Ukraine regains ground," AlterNet.com, 14 Dec 2022. 39. “Patient and Confident, Putin Shifts Out of Wartime Crisis Mode,” NYT, 30 June 2022 40. “Sergei Shoigu spoke at the opening of the X Moscow Conference on International Security,” VPK website (translation, VPK = Russian Military Industrial Company), 17 Aug 2022. 41. “Kremlin Official Reveals What It Would Take for Russia to Use Nuclear Weapons,” The Daily Beast, 22 Aug 2022. 42. "Russian nuclear employment could be preceded by attempts at legitimizing such action. Russian descriptions of the conflict, Western sanctions, or Western actions perceived as constituting existential threats to Russia would be concerning. This is, doctrinally, the threshold at which Russia would consider a nuclear response.” Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, “Understanding Putin's Nuclear Decision-Making, War on the Rocks, 22 Mar 2022. 43. “Rapid loss of territory in Ukraine reveals spent Russian military,” Washington Post, 13 Sept 2022. Also: Seth G. Jones , Jared Thompson , and Riley McCabe, “Mapping Ukraine's Military Advances, September,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 Sep 2022. 44. Address by Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, Kremlin, Moscow, 21 Sep 2022. 45. “Medvedev raises spectre of Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine,” Reuters, 27 Sep 2022. 46. “Russia's Medvedev: new regions can be defended with strategic nuclear weapons,” Reuters, 22 Sep 2022. 47. “Signing of treaties on accession of Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to Russia,” The Kremlin, Moscow, 30 Sep 2022. 48. “A Biden admin official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to take back Crimea,” NBC, 16 Dec 2022. 49. “US Warns Russia of ‘Catastrophic Consequences' if It Uses Nuclear Weapons," NYT, 25 Sep 2022. 50. “Biden Warns Russia Using Nuke Is 'Serious Mistake' Amid 'Dirty Bomb' Rumors,” Newsweek, 51. “Petraeus: US would destroy Russia's troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Guardian, 02 Oct 2022. 52. “Russian army will be ‘annihilated' if Putin nukes Ukraine: Borrell,” AFP, 13 Oct 2022. 53. Leon Panetta, “If Putin Uses Nukes in Ukraine, the U.S. Must Respond with Military Force,” Politico, 12 Oct 2022. 54. “White House NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby and Adm. Mike Mullen,” interview, ABC News, 9 Oct 2022. 5. “Russian military leaders' talk of nuclear attack rattles US calculus,” Washington Post, 2 Nov 2022. 56. “Senior White House Official Involved in Undisclosed Talks With Top Putin Aides,” Wall Street Journal, 07 Nov 2022. 57. “US, Russian defense chiefs hold first talks in months,” Washington Post, 21 Oct 2022. 58. “Putin says ‘no need’ for using nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” PBS, 27 Oct 2022. 59. “US privately asks Ukraine to show it's open to negotiate with Russia,” Washington Post, 05 Nov 2022. Also: “US says Zelenskiy risks allies' ‘Ukraine fatigue' if he rejects Russia talks – report,” The Guardian, 06 Nov 2022. 60. “US to hold first talks under nuclear treaty since Ukraine war - State Dept,” Reuters, 08 Nov 2022. 61. “Exclusive: Russia needs time to pull back from Kherson, fighting to slow in winter - Kyiv," Reuters, 10 Nov 2022. Also: “Bad News Politically, Shrewd Move Militarily? What Russia's Kherson Retreat Means -- And What It Doesn't,” 10 Nov 2022. 62. “Russia and Ukraine each likely suffered 100,000 troops killed or wounded, top US general says,” CNN, 10 Nov 2022. 63. “CIA director meets Russian counterpart as US denies secret peace talks,” The Guardian, 14 Nov 2022. Also: "CIA boss talks nuclear weapons and prisoners with Putin's spy chief," Reuters, 14 Nov 2022. 64. “Milley on war: ‘When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment.’” Economic Club of New York, 9 Nov 2022. 65. "Biden: After Kherson both sides will ‘lick their wounds’ and decide about compromise,” White House Briefing (November 9, 2022). 66. “Russia is using energy as a weapon. How deadly will it be?” The Economist, 26 Nov 2022 67. “Public Opinion on the war in Ukraine,” EU Directorate-General for Communication, Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, 24 Nov 2022. 68. “Russia Conduct Simultaneous Nuclear Exercises,” Arms Control Today, NATO, Nov 2022. 69. “Globalism 2022 Support for countering Russia - All markets,” YouGov/Cambridge, 2022. 70. "Public Opinion on the war in Ukraine,” EU Directorate-General for Communication, Public Opinion Monitoriung Unit, 27 Oct 2022. 71. “Public opinion on the war in Ukraine,” EU Directorate-General for Communication, Public Opinion Monitoriung Unit, 8 December 2022. 72. “Why Turkish Citizens Blame the United States for Ukraine War,” Project on Middle East Democracy, 10 May 2022. Also: “Turkey is friendly with both Russia and Ukraine. Now it wants them to talk peace,” NPR, 16 Nov 2022. 73. European Economic Concerns and Strife Related to War ■ “As Ukraine War Hits Pocketbooks, European Discontent Grows,” VOA, 17 Nov 2022. ■ “Tens of Thousands Protest in Prague Against Czech Government, EU and NATO,” Reuters, 3 Sep 2022. ■ “‘I've given up on all my dreams': Dread in Germany deepens over war in Ukraine,” LA Times, 03 Oct 2022. 74. “Globalism 2022 - Support for countering Russia - All markets,” YouGov/Cambridge, 2022. 75.“Growing US Divide on How Long to Support Ukraine,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 05 Dec 2022. 76. “Americans' nuclear fears surge to highest levels since Cold War,” The Hill, 14 Oct 2022. Also: “Three in four Americans say US should support Ukraine despite Russian threats, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, Reuters, 05 Oct 2022. 77. “Economist/YouGov Poll - US Adult Citizens,” 16-18 Oct 2022. 78. “Growing US Divide on How Long to Support Ukraine,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 05 Dec 2022. 79. “Fears in Europe grow over Putin nuke threats,” The Hill, 06 Oct 2022. 80. “Kherson biggest Russian loss since withdrawal from outside Kyiv,” BBC News, 11 Nov 2022. 81.“Ukraine Retakes Kherson, US Looks to Diplomacy Before Winter Slows Momentum; American arms are flowing, but officials in Washington question how much territory either side can win,” Wall Street Journal, 13 Nov 2022. 82. “US Goal in Ukraine: Drive Russians Back to Pre-Invasion Lines, Blinken Says,” Wall Street Journal 6 Dec 2022. 83. “Five reasons why the Crimean bridge explosion is significant,” The Hill, 09 Oct 2022. 84. “Biden says he has no plans to contact Putin, prepared to talk about ending Ukraine war,” Reuters, 1 Dec 2022. 85. “Zelenskyy open to talks with Russia — on Ukraine's terms,” AP, 8 Nov 2022. 86. “Macron says new security architecture should give guarantees for Russia,” Reuters, 03 Dec 2022. Also: “Ukraine, Baltics rebuke Macron for suggesting ‘security guarantees' for Russia,” CNBC, 4 Dec 2022. 87. “Explosions rock 2 military airbases deep inside Russia,” NBC News, 05 Dec 2022. 88. “How A Soviet-Era Reconnaissance UAS Became A Cruise Missile,” Aviation Week, 15 Dec 2022. Also: “Ukraine used home-modified drones to strike Russian bases,” Politico, 07 Dec 2022. 89. “Drones that attacked Russian airstrips were guided by US' GPS system - Russian UN envoy,” TASS, 9 Dec 2022. 90. Estimates of combined US, Saudi, and Chinese aid to the mujahideen range between $6–12 billion over an 13 year period. This might equate to $25 billion in 2021 USD - or less than $2 billion per year. The Kiel Institute "Ukraine Support Tracker" records about $120 billion in aid as of 20 Nov 2022. See: ■ Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001. (New York: Penguin Group, 2005.) ■ C.J. Dick, Mujahideen Tactics in the Soviet-Afghan War, Conflict Studies Research Center (Camberley, Surrey UK: Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Jan 2002) 91. “The threat of nuclear war is rising, says Vladimir Putin,” MSN, 8 Dec 2022. 92. “How A Soviet-Era Reconnaissance UAS Became A Cruise Missile,” Aviation Week, 15 Dec 2022. 93. NATO chief fears Ukraine war could become a wider conflict, AP News, 9 Dec 2022. 94. Brazen strikes deep inside Russia complicate support from US, allies for Ukraine,” Washington Times, 7 Dec 2022. 95. “Strikes in Russia leave Ukraine allies uneasy at Putin reply,” Stars and Stripes (Bloomberg News), 8 Dec 2022. 96. ibid 97. “US did not encourage or enable Kyiv to strike within Russia, Blinken says,” Washington Post, 7 Dec 2022. Also: "’US neither encouraged nor enabled Kyiv to strike inside Russia’ - Blinken,” BBC, 7 Dec 2022. 98. “Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia,” UK Times, 09 Dec 2022 99. James Stavridis, “Putin Won't Use a Nuke. Chemical Weapons, Maybe,” Bloomberg, July 20 2022 100. C. Anthony Pfaff, "Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter," New Atlanticist, 09 Jun 2022. Also: Michael Vlahos, "America's Perilous Choice in Ukraine: How Proxy War Accelerates Great Power Decline," Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, 17 Oct 2022. 101. Jeremy Shapiro, “We Are On a Path to Nuclear War,” War on the Rocks, 12 Oct 2022. 102. “Nuclear Experts On Chances Of Russia Using Atomic Weapons In Ukraine,” The War Zone, 30 Sep 2022. 103. Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink, “Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy,” War on the Rocks, 19 Sep 2022. Also: Kofman, Fink, Edmonds, Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts (Arlington Virginia: CNA, Apr 2020). 104. “US approves $45 billion aid package for Ukraine,” France 24, 23 Dec 2022. 105. “Biden Gives Ukraine Patriot System, JDAMs, as Zelenskyy Visits US,” Air & Space Magazine (21 Dec 2022). Also: ■ “US to Supply Ukraine with Kits to Make 'Dumb' Bombs 'Smart',” Wall Street Journal, 21 Dec 2022. ■ “What Joint Direct Attack Munitions Could Do For Ukraine,” Warzone, 15 Dec 2022. 106. “Patriot to Ukraine: What Does It Mean?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 16 Dec 2022. Also: “Patriot missiles to Ukraine: US regaining escalation dominance?” Airforce Technology, 22 Dec 2022. 107. “Russia says 89 troops were killed in New Year's attack, blames use of mobile phones,” Reuters, 4 Jan 2023. 108. “US not preventing Ukraine from developing long-range strike capabilities Pentagon,” Jerusalem Post (Reuters), 6 Dec 2022. Also: “Ukroboronprom tells about new drones for Ukrainian armed forces,” The New Voice of Ukraine, 12 Dec 2022. 109. US Dept of Defense, “US Plans Combined Arms Training for Ukrainian Soldiers,” DOD News, 15 Dec 2022. 110. “Factbox: Tanks for Ukraine: who is lining up to send them?” Reuters, 25 Jan 2023. Also: “The Ukrainian Army Could Form Three New Heavy Brigades With All These Tanks And Fighting Vehicles It’s Getting,” Forbes, 17 Jan 2023. 111. “Ukraine Gets ‘Tank Killers',” New York Times, 06 Jan 2023. 112. Viewpoint: Russia Will Not Use Nuclear Weapons ■ George Mitrovich, “Why Hasn't Putin Gone Nuclear in Ukraine?” The National Interest, 17 Nov 2022. ■ “Russia's Nuclear Weapons Rhetoric. US officials say they do not believe that Russia has decided to detonate a tactical device, but concerns are rising,” NYT, 2 Nov 2022. ■ "Nuclear war in Ukraine not likely," The Well, 27 Oct 2022. ■ "Putin 'Very Unlikely' to Use Nuclear Weapons: Retired US General," Newsweek, 26 Oct 2022. ■ "Russia's nuclear arsenal is huge, but will Putin use it?" NPR, 17 Oct 2022. ■ “Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? Local Experts Explain,” NBC Boston, 12 Oct 2022. ■ "Interview with Paul Bracken: Could Russia Really Go Nuclear?"Yale Insights, 11 Oct 2022. ■ William Alberque, “Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” IISS Analysis, 10 Oct 2022. ■ “In Ukraine Conflict, Nuclear Escalation Is Possible, But Not Likely, Expert Says,” Texas A&M Today, 13 April 2022. ■ Olga Oliker, “Putin's Nuclear Bluff,” Foreign Affairs, 11 Mar 2022. ■ J. Andrés Gannon, “If Russia Goes Nuclear: Three Scenarios for the Ukraine War,” Council on Foreign Relations, 9 Nov 2022. ■ The War Zone, “Nuclear Experts On Chances Of Russia Using Atomic Weapons In Ukraine,” 30 Sep 2022. 113. Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda, “Tactical nuclear weapons,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 30 Aug 2019. 114. Amy F. Woolf, Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, US Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 07 March 2022. Also: William A. Chambers, John K. Warden, Caroline R. Milne, and James A. Blackwell, An Assessment of the U.S.-Russia Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons Balance, Institute for Defense Analysis, Jan 2021. 115. “Russia's nuclear arsenal is huge, but will Putin use it?“ NPR, 17 Oct 2022. 116. Ulrich Kühn, Preventing Escalation in the Baltics: A NATO Playbook (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 28 March 2018). 117. Kofman and Fink, “Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy,” War on the Rocks, 19 Sep 2022. Also: Kofman, Fink, Edmonds, Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts (Arlington Virginia: CNA, Apr 2020). 118.“Strategic Procrastination: What’s Russia’s Game With Nuclear Signaling?,” Carnegie Politika, 10 Nov 2022. 119. “Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),” Nuclear Threat Initiative, accessed 18 Dec 2022. 120. Alexander Gabuev, “The Atlantic Putin's Doomsday Scenario” The Atlantic (11 Nov 2022). 121. Anne Applebaum, “Fear of Nuclear War Has Warped the West’s Ukraine Strategy,” The Atlantic, (07 Nov 2022). Also: ■ Daniel Bilak, “The West must urgently overcome its fear of provoking Putin,” Atlantic Council blog, 25 Nov 2022. ■ Dan Reiter, “Don’t Panic About Putin,” Foreign Affairs (7 Nov 2022) 122. John K. Warden, Limited Nuclear War: The 21st Century Challenge for the United States, Livermore Papers on Global Security No. 4, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Center for Global Security Research, July 2018. 123. Masha Gessen, “Why Vladimir Putin Would Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine,” The New Yorker, 01 Nov 2022. 124. Steven Pifer, “Would Putin Roll the Nuclear Dice?” Time, 18 Oct 2022. 125. Uri Friedman “Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons? Watch These Indicators,” The Atlantic, 15 Oct 2022. Also: ■ William Alberque, “Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” IISS Analysis, 10 Oct 2022. ■ “How America Watches for a Nuclear Strike,” NYT, 5 April 2022. 126. "This is Almost as Bad as the Appeasement at Munich," transcript and recording, The Fourteenth Day, accessed 10 Jan 2023. 127. “Where the weapons are - Nuclear weapon storage facilities in Russia,” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 24 August 2017. 128. Amy Nelson and Alexander Montgomery, "How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war," Brookings Institution, 19 Oct 2022. 129. Martin E. Hellman, "Probabilistic Risk Assessment" in James Scouras, ed, On Assessing the Risk of Nuclear War (Laurel, MD: John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, 2021). 130. To indicate a higher state of Russian strategic force readiness “land- and rail-based mobile missile systems can be dispersed, missile-armed submarines in port can be sent out to sea, and bombers can be loaded with nuclear weapons. Measures to enhance the stability of command and control systems may include the activation of reserve command centers and reserve communication channels and the deployment of mobile relay stations for the transmission of commands to submarines and bombers.” Of course, half-steps along these paths would also be obvious and would understandable stir great concern. Pavel Podvig ed, Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 01 Nov 2001); Chapter 2, "The Structure and Operations of Strategic Nuclear Forces Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces". 131. There have been
dozens of nuclear weapon-related accidents
since the 1945 as well as a handful of
publicly-known incidents of mistaken
near-use due to faulty perception of attack.
A high percentage of these false warnings
occured during conflict crises - in 1956
during the Suez Crisis, 1973 during the
Arab-Israeli October War, and most
critically during the Cuban Missile Crisis
when a Soviet submarine nearly launched a
nuclear torpedo, US radar operators
separately mistakenly reported to the US air
defense command that a missile attack was
underway, and a US F-102 fighter armed only
with nuclear air-to-air missiles rushed to
protect a U-2 that had wandered into Soviet
air space. It should not be surprising that
mistaken perceptions or rash action cluster
around crisis periods. ■ “Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons,” Union of Concerned Scientists, 15 Jan 2015. ■ Jason M. Weaver, “One in a Million, Given the Accident: Assuring Nuclear Weapon Safety,” US Department of Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical Information, 25 August 2015. ■ “Broken
Arrows: Nuclear Weapons Accidents,” Atomic Archive,
accessed, 30 Dec 2022.
■ Patricia
Lewis, Heather Williams, Benoît Pelopidas
and Sasan Aghlani, Too
Close for Comfort: Cases of Near
Nuclear
Use and Options for Policy, Chatham House Report,
April 2014. 132. McGeorge Bundy, Danger and Survival: Choices About the Bomb in the First Fifty Years (New York: Random House, 1988); Graham Allison, "The Cuban Missile Crisis at 60: Six Timeless Lessons for Arms Control," Arms Control Today, October 2022. 133. A roll of two dice in which both turn up only one pip is "snake eyes" - a losing roll. Its probability of occurrence is 1/36. 134. McGeorge Bundy, "To Cap the Volcano," Foreign Affairs 48, no. 1 (October 1969). 135. Global Impact of Russia-Ukraine War ■ “War in Ukraine sparks fertilizer crisis that may impact the future of global food production,” The World - WGBH, 05 Jan 2023. ■ “How Russia’s War on Ukraine Is Worsening Global Starvation,” NYT, 02 Jan 2023. ■ “Putin's 'energy weapon' will kill more in Europe this winter than have died in Ukraine war,” The Telegraph (UK), 26 Nov 2022. ■ “OECD Says War In Ukraine To Have Greater Impact On Global Economy Than Expected,” RFE/RL, 26 Sep 2022. ■ Assem Abu Hatab, “Africa’s Food Security under the Shadow of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” Review of Southern Africa Vol. 44 No. 1 (29 Aug 2022). ■ “Global cost-of-living crisis catalyzed by war in Ukraine sending tens of millions into poverty,” UN Development Programme, 7 July 2022. 136. Allied influence on Ukrainian talks ■ “US says Zelenskiy risks allies' ‘Ukraine fatigue' if he rejects Russia talks – report,” The Guardian, 06 Nov 2022. ■ "Possibility of talks between Zelenskyy and Putin came to a halt after Johnson's visit - UP sources," Ukrainska Pravda, 05 May 2022. ■ “NATO says Ukraine to decide on peace deal with Russia - within limits,” Washington Post, 05 April 2022. ■ “Mixed
signals from Ukraine’s president and his
aides leave West confused about his
endgame,”
Washington Post,
18 March 2022.
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