Security in the Great Transition

 by Charles Knight, Tellus Institute Great Transition Initiative Series, 2006.  PDF
This essay seeks to offer a plausible narrative of how the world moves very close to the elimination of large-scale organized violence over the course of this century.
“This narrative is written with the voice of a grateful historian in 2084. Whatever reality emerges [over the coming decades] will not be constructed out of human imagination and agency alone. Much is beyond our control. But as humans we have some freedom to apply our labor and skills with spirit and purpose toward goals. The first step on this path of purpose is in the imagination.”