Manbij is a cross-roads city on the western side of the Euphrates not far from the Tishrin Dam hydroelectric plant. It’s the centerpiece of the small-slice of territory west of the river held by the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. It has been for years a focus of struggle between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the SDF (which Ankara considers a terrorist organization due to its informal relation to the Turkey-banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party.)
Given the collapse of the Assad government and departure of its Russian and Iranian supporters, the Syrian National Army is unrestrained. And the Manbij salient is hard to defend. So Washington reportedly brokered an agreement for the SDF to exit the city and surrounding area. This accommodation will not secure the peace for long. The principal Syrian rebel group – the HTS – will also want to extend Syrian government control over the Kurdish area. Some form of autonomy might be negotiated. But what makes the Kurdish-SDF controlled area especially valuable is oil. Loss of control over this asset contributed to the evisceration of the Assad regime.
Unrelated to the current pressure on the SDF, but important is the fact that the Kurdish group presently oversees ~20 prison camps in Syria holding 10,000 ISIS fighters and upwards of 55,000 related (or possibly related) people. Oil, ISIS, and Erdoğan’s ire define the tension over the SDF’s future. So does the new government’s desire to assert and command national sovereignty.
⇒ Middle East Eye, Syrian opposition forces seize Manbij from Kurdish YPG: Report
⇒ Reuters, Rebels take Syrian city from US-backed group after US-Turkey deal, source says
⇒ Rojava Information Center, Explainer – Turkish and SNA offensive on Manbij (Note: The source is supportive of the Kurdistan Workers Party and partial to the SDF.)
⇒ Politico, There Are 13 Guantanamos in the Syrian Desert