by Charles Knight, March 2023.
The present status of the war in Ukraine begs the question of whether anything like “decisive” warfare will occur this year?
Or will this war continue (since the summer of 2022) to uncannily mimic the often static battles of the Western Front during WWI?
In other words, will the war remain mired in mutual slaughter?
Presently, according to the many popular press narratives, the Russian winter offensive is concluding, and we await the spring and summer offensive by Ukraine.
It should be noted that there is no reason to believe that national leaders will follow popular press narratives. Offensives are risky business, and commanders often change their minds daily, especially regarding the critical factor of timing.
The Russians could try diverting the concentration of Ukraine forces readying for an offensive by opening their own offensive push at a place of their choosing. Or the Ukrainians could suddenly withdraw their troops from the threatened (and largely destroyed) town of Bakhmut while beginning one or more major offensives in Luhansk, Kherson, or Zaporizhzia.
There are many possibilities. There are many paths to military success or failure.
None of this is predictable. The generals are certainly not going to tell us about their plans.
Meanwhile, the war is not only terribly costly to Ukraine and Russia but much of the world pays through global economic disruption.
In poorer areas of the world, misery has surely increased because of the war. There are growing signs that the world is growing weary. An Economist report has found “…an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South.”