From CSIS: “The Kremlin has been pushing for normalization between Ankara and Damascus and has been frustrated by Assad’s intransigence. In the face of Assad’s refusal to reconcile, Turkey may have allowed for a rebel offensive for the first time in years to encourage the regime to reconsider… [The] lightning-fast offensive is a monumental shift in the Syrian conflict and highlights the regime’s inherent weakness. Only after years of siege and heavy bombardment, with the help of Iran and Russia, was the regime able to capture all of Aleppo city in 2016. Within a day, rebels were able to take the city with little resistance.” See CSIS article: HERE – Upshot: The Assad government is weak while Russian and Iran-linked supporting groups are otherwise engaged. The Al Qaeda spin-off group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in northwest Syria has spent four years of ceasefire building strength for this opportunity.
