Earlier this year, at least. Kyiv Post, Ukrainian Special Forces and Syrian Rebels Decimate Russian Mercenaries in Syria. It may seem puzzling due to troop shortages along the front line in Ukraine, but the logic is similar to that framing UA’s Kursk incursion: The Syria operation could contribute to a significant distraction for Russian forces should the Syrian conflict re-ignite – which is has. More than that, action in Syria (and the Sahel) lends some credence to Kyiv’s insistence that it is fighting a global war for the West against Russia. In this story, cooperation with an Al Qaeda spinoff -Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a US-designated terrorist organization, is discounted. Also see:

Ukrainska Pravda, Ukraine plans attacks on Russian forces in Syria – The Washington Post

The Hill, Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia in Africa, Syria

The  map below, produced by Jusoor (a research group in Turkey), purports to show a full picture of US military deployment sites as of summer 2024. We cannot confirm its accuracy.

Note: The first map does not accurately portray the deployment of US troops. Only a small minority reside in the area marked “US Outpost.” Most are in multiple locations throughout the Kurdish held areas.

“Sourcing basic weaponry has been relatively easy for HTS: Syria has been awash with arms since 2011, when Turkey and Arab nations, with US support, flooded the country with weapons to help bolster the rebels in the civil war against the Iran-supported regime. But HTS’s homegrown manufacturing, particularly of drones and missiles, has enabled it to pose new threats to a regime that lacks significant anti-drone capabilities.” See article from Financial Times HERE.

Also see: Middle East Eye, Shaheen drones: The new rebel weapon in Syria’s skies

from War on the Rocks: Article explores in useful detail the recent evolution of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, its organization, strategy, and planning that enabled its success in Aleppo.

from The Conversation: “The group originated as an offshoot of the Nusra Front, the official al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. In a pivotal shift in 2016… the Nusra Front publicly cut ties with al-Qaida and adopted the new name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which means ‘Front for the Conquest of the Levant.’ The following year, it merged with several other factions in the Syrian war to become Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the ‘Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.’ … This rebranding aimed to move away from al-Qaida’s global jihadist agenda… It allowed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to focus on issues specific to Syrians… In other words, it needed to balance its radical Islamist origins with the demands of local governance and political engagement.”

In-depth report from The International Crisis Group is HERE. “Syria’s civil war, which has been largely frozen for over four years, has erupted again in startling fashion… The offensive has overturned a delicate set of arrangements that had kept fighting in the north west fairly quiet since 2020, when Russia and Türkiye struck a ceasefire deal that froze the front lines.”

From CSIS: “The Kremlin has been pushing for normalization between Ankara and Damascus and has been frustrated by Assad’s intransigence. In the face of Assad’s refusal to reconcile, Turkey may have allowed for a rebel offensive for the first time in years to encourage the regime to reconsider… [The] lightning-fast offensive is a monumental shift in the Syrian conflict and highlights the regime’s inherent weakness. Only after years of siege and heavy bombardment, with the help of Iran and Russia, was the regime able to capture all of Aleppo city in 2016. Within a day, rebels were able to take the city with little resistance.” See CSIS article: HERE  – Upshot: The Assad government is weak while Russian and Iran-linked supporting groups are otherwise engaged. The Al Qaeda spin-off group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in northwest Syria  has spent four years of ceasefire building strength for this opportunity.

Three goals: 1. A political solution that empowers Sunni Islamist rebels. 2. A political solution that draws Syrian refugees out of Türkiye and back into Syria. 3. A new arrangement that undermines the position and role of Kurdish forces in Syria.

Atlantic Council, What does Turkey gain from the rebel offensive in Syria?

“The former al Qaeda affiliate now governs approximately two million people, half of whom are internally displaced Syrians. Over the past three years, HTS consolidated power within its territory and sought to convince the international community that it no longer merits its pariah status as a terrorist organization.” CSIS, Examining Extremism: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS)

“The unexpected success of the operation has caught both analysts and Syrian government forces off guard… The implications are vast: the largely stagnant battle lines in Syria have shifted dramatically over the course of four days.” Article from The Soufan Center examines how the Islamist advance alters the prospects of the civil war and affects the global and regional calculus of Russia, Iran, and Türkiye.

From this Christian Science Monitor article with the damning title “Russian TV calls Tulsi Gabbard ‘our girlfriend.’ Can she keep US secrets?” we learn that she (1) harbors some skepticism about whether Syrian President Assad ordered the use of chemical weapons during the civil war, (2) thinks the war in Ukraine could have been avoided had NATO not pursued expansion, (3) has praised NSA leaker and whistle-blower Edward Snowden, and (4) opposed Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that enables mass surveillance of US citizens. On the face of it, none of these views are strictly disqualifying. Some are laudable and certainly preferable to some of the policy positions of the current DNI, Avril Haines: Peace Groups Blast Biden’s DNI Pick Over Links to Drones, Torture, and Mass Surveillance.

There was a time when Tulsi Gabbard was an anti-war Democrat, but she was complicated then as well: The New Yorker, What Does Tulsi Gabbard Believe?

Al Jazeera reports: “The study published on Thursday, titled, ‘You Feel Like You Are Subhuman’: Israel’s Genocide Against Palestinians in Gaza, is the culmination of months of research by Amnesty, including extensive witness interviews, analysis of ‘visual and digital evidence’, including satellite imagery, and statements made by senior Israeli government and military officials.” Also see The Intercept, Amnesty International Concludes That Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza

from The New York Times

BBC reports: “Hours after Hezbollah fired two mortar shells at an Israeli military outpost on Monday, Israel carried out its largest series of air strikes since the truce came into effect. Nine people were killed in two villages in southern Lebanon.”

“Hezbollah said its mortar attack – the first operation which it had announced since the ceasefire came into effect last Wednesday – was a ‘warning’ in response to repeated violations by Israel. It launched the missiles after Israel fired artillery shells and conducted at least four air strikes that killed two people, Lebanese media reported. The Israeli army did not report any casualties from the mortar attack on its position in the sensitive Shebaa Farms area – along the border of Lebanon and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.”

In fact, despite world opinion, Israel faces no strong pressure to strictly abide by the ceasefire should it see opportunities to significantly advance it goals. Hezbollah’s pin-pricks are no match for Israeli strikes. And Washington has proved unwilling to draw the reins on Tel Aviv. Also see:

– Middle East Monitor, Israel breached Lebanon ceasefire 100 times, UNIFIL source says

– CNN, Israel threatens to ‘go deeper’ into Lebanon as strikes strain ceasefire

The New Arab reports “Mouaz Moustafa, who heads the US-based ‘Syrian Emergency Task Force’ humanitarian organisation said that both Ukraine and the rebels wanted to work together to deal a blow to mutual enemy Russia.” However, “The New Arab‘s senior news editor Paul McLoughlin, a Syria specialist, says that while Ukraine had incentives to link up with Syrian rebel groups to attack Russian forces, it was still difficult to verify whether any of these claims are true.”

Yes, but it’s previously known that Ukrainian special forces have been active in Syria: Kyiv Post, Ukraine’s Special Forces Target Russian Drone Base in Syria

The New Arab reports: “Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker, Nabih Berri, said at least 54 violations were recorded since Wednesday.” Other sources report: “Israel fires on southern Lebanon after claiming ceasefire violation” While CNN quotes a source with the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon asserting that Israel has breached its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon ‘approximately 100’ times since the truce went into effect last week.” CNN also reports that “the United States and France have both warned Israel they believe it has violated the ceasefire terms.”

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said on Monday: “Let me be clear that the US is in no way involved in the operations you see playing out in and around Aleppo in northwestern Syria, which as you know are being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization.” However, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.” CNN, US left facing a difficult situation in Syria.   In related news: The Cradle, US-backed Kurdish militia withdraws from Aleppo in agreement with HTS.

What truce? And to be clear: It’s Lebanon and Gaza that are being flattened. Al Monitor, Israel hits Hezbollah targets in Lebanon days into fragile truce

They’re a rebranded mix of “former” Al Qaeda & Islamic State fighters.  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been for years confined to the province of Idlib where it essentially governs. A ceasefire with Damascus was brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020. Now they’re exploiting Russia’s focus on Ukraine and various Israeli and US attacks on Iran-allied groups some of whom have been mainstays of Syrian government rule. Notably, “HTS had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict until this week.” Has there also been direct encouragement by outside actors? BBC, Who are the rebels seizing control of Syria’s second city?

The Project on Government Oversight (POGO) summarizes a damning report on the F-35 done by DoD’s office of Operational Test and Evaluation and obtained by POGO via the Freedom of Information Act. The persisting F-35 problems?

• Failure to meet key availability and reliability requirements
• Continued inaccuracy of the gun
• Excessive logistics footprint
• Delays on promised improvements
• Troubled AI system for maintenance support
• Stealth Capabilities Are Hard to Maintain (and were not fully tested)

POGO, F-35 Testing Report Reveals Problems with Production Decisions

• Halt to hostilities will begin 12 hours after ceasefire announcement
• Israel would withdraw but not immediately. 30-60 days is likely agreement
• Hezbollah fighters will lmove north of the Litani River, which is 20 miles north of the border.
• Hezbollah military facilities in the south “will be dismantled” ..but by whom?
• Lebanese army would deploy troops south of the Litani. ~5000 troops, 33 posts along the border
• Monitoring might be done by UNIFIL and Lebanese army with an oversight group including the USA and France
• Israel would reserve right to strike Lebanon if it concludes that Hezbollah withdrawal and dismantling of southern infrastructure is not occurring.

PDA commentary: One important point is that Hezbollah efforts to compel a ceasefire in Gaza would end. Also, if Lebanon actually agrees “in writing” to allow Israel to police the agreement via future strikes on Lebanon, it would be a remarkable surrender of sovereignty. Middle East Monitor, US-brokered truce details

This won’t wash – not involving any substantial number. Also, keep in mind that leaks have indicated that ~150 NATO military and intelligence agents are already present. Contractors? Unknown. At any rate: It would take multiple tens-of-thousands operating in rear areas to make a discernible difference, by improving support and freeing-up Ukrainian troops to go forward. Would this provoke RU vs US-NATO war? It would certainly increase the probability. But Putin has other options: Target NATO personnel in Ukraine. Also, an invasion by NATO makes total Russian mobilization politically practicable. All this should be obvious to Macron and Starmer, suggesting that the leak is a desperate gambit, in the shadow of Trump’s ascent, to dampen Putin’s optimism and improve Ukraine’s bargaining position. Ukrainska Pravda, Europe troops to Ukraine?

“Antipersonnel land mines are banned by a treaty signed by more than 160 countries, but the U.S. and Russia aren’t signatories. Arms control and human rights groups say they cause disproportionately high civilian casualties, and some can endanger civilians years after a conflict ends.” USA Today, Biden will give Ukraine land mines

Also see: Politico, ‘Frankly shocking’: Human rights groups thrash Biden’s decision to send land mines to Ukraine 

“Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region… Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops have pushed Kyiv’s offensive backwards. BBC, Ukraine front could ‘collapse’

Also see: BBC, Russia and US battle for advantage in Ukraine war ahead of Trump’s return

“Beth Miller, political director at the US-based advocacy group Jewish Voice for Peace, called the US veto on Wednesday ‘pathetic’ and said the Biden administration’s legacy will be the genocide in Gaza.” Al Jazeera, US Vetoes Resolution

Also see: Middle East Eye,
The 49 times the US used veto power against UN resolutions on Israel –
“In the past year alone, Washington has vetoed four Security Council resolutions calling for a Gaza ceasefire.”

The three relevant resolutions were defeated 18-79, 19-78, and 17-80. All of those voting in support were Democrats. (Republican Sens. Mike Braun and JD Vance, the vice-president-elect, did not vote.)

The vote is at odds with US public sentiment. As Sanders pointed out “poll after poll shows that a strong majority of the American people oppose sending more weapons and military aid to fund Netanyahu’s war machine.” Also, “According to a poll commissioned by J Street… 62% of Jewish Americans support withholding weapons shipments to Israel until Netanyahu agrees to an immediate cease-fire.” But the leadership of both US parties still embrace out of fear or commitment a 9/11 frame for guiding policy on the Israel-Gaza war.

In this frame, Israeli efforts to destroy Hamas – a militant Islamic organization guilty of war crimes – justify much greater IDF war crimes. Current estimates are that direct and indirect war deaths in Gaza may surpass 180,000. What seems obvious to much of the world – that Netanyahu is actually pursuing ethnic cleansing, which is a genocidal objective – hardly registers among US Democratic and GOP leadership. Common Dreams, Senate Rejects Sanders’ Bid

Biden administration “terror-bates” Sanders et al. A new low for the White House. Huffington Post exclusive.

Report estimates 186,000 direct and indirect deaths. “Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.” Article has link to full report. Lancet, Counting the Dead

“The report details the most prominent crimes committed over the past 12 months, thoroughly documented by Euro-Med field teams. It traces the clear elements of genocide perpetrated by the Israeli army, explores the legal frameworks defining the crime of genocide, and scrutinizes both the context and ongoing circumstances. The report also addresses the international judiciary’s response, and, significantly, the global community’s complicit role in allowing the genocide to continue.” De-Gaza report

Is the United States sleepwalking into disaster in the Middle East? Retired army colonel Douglas Macgregor sets out four questions to be answered before joining any Israeli attack on Iran. They give strong reason to pause. Notably, Macgregor briefly served as a defense advisor in the last Trump administration. American Conservative: Storm of the Century