(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #18, 05 September 2006. A net assessment of America’s post-911 security policy shows it to be “pyrrhic” in character: although progress has been made in disrupting Al Qaeda, the broader effect has been to increase the threat to the United States, while weakening the nation’s capacity to respond effectively.
Publications
Dissuading China and Fighting the ‘Long War’
by Carl Conetta, World Policy Journal, 01 July 2006. ➪ PDF
The 2006 US Defense Review advanced two new strategic vectors for the US armed forces – one targets a putative “global Islamic insurgency”; the other puts America on a collision course with China.
(A longer version of this article was published in November 2006 under the title The Near Enemy and the Far: The Long War, China, and the 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review.)
Mechanized Tube Artillery as an Integral Element of Expeditionary Forces
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Lutz Unterseher, Guest Publication, Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, Germany, May 2006. In seeking improved strategic mobility of indirect fire assets nations are advised to trade on tactical performance with care.
A Few Thoughts on the Evolution of Infantry: Past, Present, Future
by Lutz Unterseher, Guest Publication, Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, Germany, May 2006. PDF | HTML
Subduing resistance and guarding the peace in modern interventions requires high-quality infantry, but it is erroneous to think the job could be done by elite SOF forces because there can never be enough of these. The vast majority of the all-volunteer armies in the industrial West face a problem when it comes to attracting sufficient personnel: relatively few recruits are good enough to receive the more demanding training needed — creating a dilemma that has rarely been addressed and one that certainly is yet to be solved by today’s armies.
Die Europäische Union: Stolpersteine auf dem Weg zur Integration (The European Union: Stumbling Blocks on the Road to Integration)
(printable PDF version) by Lutz Unterseher, Guest Publication, Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, Germany, May 2006. In German with English abstract. The EU is entering a sustained period of conflict-prone development with grossly different paths of adjustment and modernization stimulating constant fighting for a redistribution of notoriously scarce central resources. If Europe does not want to fall back onto the level of a mere free-trade arrangement, if it intends to become a unified actor in the international arena that transcends the role of just an economic bloc and is also capable of generating and executing global policies with respect to the environment, security and other issues, there is no alternative to an ‘open-club régime’.
We Can See Clearly Now: The Limits of Foresight in the pre-World War II Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)
by Carl Conetta“Military transformation” and the idea of a “Revolution in Military Affairs” are prominent themes in US defense planning. However, the example of revolutionary change during the Second World War suggests that forecasting such revolutions poses a daunting, if not insurmountable challenge.
Pressure mounts on Blair as British fatalities reach 100
(HTML version) Kim Sengupta and Terri Judd. The Independent, UK, 01 February 2006.
QDR 2006: Do The Forces Match the Missions? DOD Gives Little Reason to Believe
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #36, February 2006. The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review sets out ambitious new goals and missions for the US armed forces, but fails to clarify the link between missions, assets, and budgets.
Key excerpts from the 18 January 2006 draft of the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) InsideDefense.com, 24 January 2006 . Selection by Charles Knight. On 23 January 2006 InsideDefense.com published 42 pages of material excerpted from a 127 page “18 January 2006 draft working paper” version of the QDR. This is a selection (about 6% of the total QDR text) from those excerpts.
More troops for Iraq? Time to just say “No”
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #39, 09 January 2006. There is no reason to believe that a marginal increase in the US troop presence in Iraq will turn the tide there. The memo reviews relevant data on troop strength, insurgent activity, and Iraqi public opinion. It traces America’s troubles in Iraq to the nature of the mission, which it concludes is founded on strategic error.
Security in the Great Transition
by Charles Knight, Tellus Institute Great Transition Initiative Series, 2006. PDF
This essay seeks to offer a plausible narrative of how the world moves very close to the elimination of large-scale organized violence over the course of this century.
“This narrative is written with the voice of a grateful historian in 2084. Whatever reality emerges [over the coming decades] will not be constructed out of human imagination and agency alone. Much is beyond our control. But as humans we have some freedom to apply our labor and skills with spirit and purpose toward goals. The first step on this path of purpose is in the imagination.”
Much Ado About QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review Triggers Great Anxiety, Little Change
(HTML version) William Matthews. Armed Forces Journal, January 2006.
Iraqi Civilian Deaths Mount — and Count
(HTML version) Derrick Z. Jackson. Boston Globe, 17 December 2005.
Masque of Democracy: Iraqi Election System Still Disfavors Sunni Arabs, Favors Kurds
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #35, 10 December 2005. The memo assesses Iraqi election procedures for the December 2005 parliamentary elections. It detects problems of structural bias and shows how the procedures feed communal tensions. Includes table of province populations and assigned council seats.
Is there a new warfare?
Carl Conetta, EPS Quarterly, Nov 2005 – Full Text: PDF
The article critically examines the hypothesis that the 2001 Afghanistan and 2003 Iraq wars show evidence of the United States practicing a new form of warfare based on precision attack and new information technologies. What are these capabilities and do they live up to their promise? Based on the Presentation “Is There a ‘New Warfare’? America’s post-9/11 Wars and the Meanings of Military Transformation,” MIT Security Studies Program Seminar Series, 15 Sept 2004.
Arms Control in an Age of Strategic and Military Revolution
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Presentation to Einstein Forum, Berlin, 15 November 2005. Changes in the nature of warfare, military technology, and the global strategic environment pose new challenges for arms control. The article critically examines new forms of strategic warfare, cyberwar, so-called “precision” conventional warfare, and less lethal weaponry.
400 Days and Out: A Strategy for Solving the Iraq Impasse
(HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #34, 19 July 2005.The memo outlines a strategy for substantially defusing the Iraqi insurgency, de-escalating the inter-communal conflict there, and enabling near-total US troop withdrawal by September 2006.
Vicious Circle: The Dynamics of Occupation and Resistance in Iraq, Part One. Patterns of Popular Discontent
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #10, 18 May 2005. An analysis of Iraqi public opinion data and interviews suggests that coalition military activity is contributing substantially to anti-coalition sentiments. A “vicious circle” is indicated, whereby counter-insurgent operations create support for the insurgency. The report tracks coalition military activity and relates it to Iraqi discontent and insurgent activity. Differences among Iraqi communities are also assessed.
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The US Debate on Exiting Iraq
(HTML version) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #33, 07 March 2005.
What do Iraqis want? Iraqi attitudes on the occupation, US withdrawal, Iraqi governments, and quality of life
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) 01 February 2005. Summary of data from 2004 and 2005 Iraqi public opinion polls.
Agonizing Issue: is torture ever justified in military interrogations of terror suspects?
(HTML version) (printable PDF version) interview with Charles Knight, co-director, Project on Defense Alternatives and Alfred P. Rubin, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Law, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, transcript edited by Jim Cronin, The Boston Globe Magazine, 30 January 2005. The United States is now training hundreds, maybe thousands, of new interrogators. Abusive relationships traumatize both the victim and the abuser. We are training and having our own people experience this abuse, and they will be returning home to our communities. We know from studies of domestic abuse that this abusive pattern can be replicated through generations.
The Iraqi election “bait and switch”: faulty poll will not bring peace or US withdrawal
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #17, January 2005. Problems of bias, insecurity, and voter confusion have undermined the democratic value of the election. Nonetheless, it will win greater international legitimacy for the US mission and enable more vigorous counter-insurgency operations. US withdrawal will not soon occur. The memo examines likely electoral outcomes and the factors shaping the new Iraqi government. An addendum summarizes Iraqi public opinion regarding the occupation and US forces.
Is the Iraq war sapping America’s military power? Cautionary data and perspectives
(HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Melissa Murphy, Project on Defense Alternatives, 22 October 2004. Charts, Reference Material:
Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #16, July 2004. Can the “new” approach to the Iraq mission succeed where the previous effort failed? “No,” the fundamental problem is mission goals that are overly ambitious, intrusive, and polarizing. The report analyzes the failures of the US postwar mission in Iraq and proposes essential steps toward peace, stability, and US withdrawal.
Outsourcing Torture and the Problems of ‘Quality Control’
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 18 May 2004. The numbers of prisoners for processing in Iraq were so great that government interrogators began to rely on the assistance of under-trained and youthful soldiers who were so “shockingly undisciplined” that they took photos of their activities to send home — yet another indicator of how poorly prepared for a large scale occupation the United States was before going into Iraq. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus and Antiwar.com websites.
Outsourcing torture and the problems of “quality control”
(HTML version) by Charles Knight, Global Beat Syndicate, 17 May 2004. “…the United States as a state sponsor of torture, perpetrated or exported to foreign stooges, is having a ripple effect globally that will damage our image for a long time to come.”
The Bush Doctrine: Origins, Evolution, Alternatives
(printable PDF version) by Mark Gerard Mantho, PDA Guest Publication, April 2004. The Bush administration’s national security doctrine represents the most sweeping change in U.S. foreign policy since World War II and was the conceptual underpinning of the President’s decision to invade Iraq. Yet few Americans realize where the policy came from, who crafted it, or even what it is.
Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a “New Warfare”
by Carl Conetta, PDA Research Monograph #9, 18 February 2004. ➪ PDF ➪ summary PDF ➪ HTML ➪ summary HTML
Examines the Pentagon’s treatment of the civilian casualty issue in the Iraq and Afghan wars, reviews the “spin” and “news frames” used by defense officials to shape the public debate over casualties, and critiques the concept of a “precision warfare” as misleading. Case studies include the Baghdad bombing campaign. An appendix provides a comprehensive Guide to Surveys and Reporting on Casualties in the Afghan and Iraq Wars.
Saving General Shinseki: on the future of wheeled armor
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Lutz Unterseher. PDA Guest Publication, February 2004. Presents the specifications for a ‘hybrid’ combat vehicle featuring: considerable, versatile firepower (kinetic energy and fragmentation) without the weight penalty of a main gun system; a high degree of crew protection; better strategic mobility than current tracked armor; superior operational mobility; and acceptable tactical mobility.
The New Occupation: How Preventive War is Wrecking the Military
(HTML version) by Charles Knight and Marcus Corbin, Security Policy Working Group Commentary, 04 January 2004.
European Armed Forces of Tomorrow: A New Perspective
(printable PDF version) (HTML version) (Leicht gekuerzte deutschsprachige Fassung der Studie) by Lutz Unterseher. PDA Guest Publication, 20 October 2003.
This brief models an integrated European Armed Forces. It details a viable all-European force’s conceptual framework, strategic orientation, key functions, posture, resources, personnel, and budget.