“The unexpected success of the operation has caught both analysts and Syrian government forces off guard… The implications are vast: the largely stagnant battle lines in Syria have shifted dramatically over the course of four days.” Article from The Soufan Center examines how the Islamist advance alters the prospects of the civil war and affects the global and regional calculus of Russia, Iran, and Türkiye.

From this Christian Science Monitor article with the damning title “Russian TV calls Tulsi Gabbard ‘our girlfriend.’ Can she keep US secrets?” we learn that she (1) harbors some skepticism about whether Syrian President Assad ordered the use of chemical weapons during the civil war, (2) thinks the war in Ukraine could have been avoided had NATO not pursued expansion, (3) has praised NSA leaker and whistle-blower Edward Snowden, and (4) opposed Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that enables mass surveillance of US citizens. On the face of it, none of these views are strictly disqualifying. Some are laudable and certainly preferable to some of the policy positions of the current DNI, Avril Haines: Peace Groups Blast Biden’s DNI Pick Over Links to Drones, Torture, and Mass Surveillance.

There was a time when Tulsi Gabbard was an anti-war Democrat, but she was complicated then as well: The New Yorker, What Does Tulsi Gabbard Believe?

Al Jazeera reports: “The study published on Thursday, titled, ‘You Feel Like You Are Subhuman’: Israel’s Genocide Against Palestinians in Gaza, is the culmination of months of research by Amnesty, including extensive witness interviews, analysis of ‘visual and digital evidence’, including satellite imagery, and statements made by senior Israeli government and military officials.” Also see The Intercept, Amnesty International Concludes That Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza

from The New York Times

BBC reports: “Hours after Hezbollah fired two mortar shells at an Israeli military outpost on Monday, Israel carried out its largest series of air strikes since the truce came into effect. Nine people were killed in two villages in southern Lebanon.”

“Hezbollah said its mortar attack – the first operation which it had announced since the ceasefire came into effect last Wednesday – was a ‘warning’ in response to repeated violations by Israel. It launched the missiles after Israel fired artillery shells and conducted at least four air strikes that killed two people, Lebanese media reported. The Israeli army did not report any casualties from the mortar attack on its position in the sensitive Shebaa Farms area – along the border of Lebanon and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.”

In fact, despite world opinion, Israel faces no strong pressure to strictly abide by the ceasefire should it see opportunities to significantly advance it goals. Hezbollah’s pin-pricks are no match for Israeli strikes. And Washington has proved unwilling to draw the reins on Tel Aviv. Also see:

– Middle East Monitor, Israel breached Lebanon ceasefire 100 times, UNIFIL source says

– CNN, Israel threatens to ‘go deeper’ into Lebanon as strikes strain ceasefire

The New Arab reports “Mouaz Moustafa, who heads the US-based ‘Syrian Emergency Task Force’ humanitarian organisation said that both Ukraine and the rebels wanted to work together to deal a blow to mutual enemy Russia.” However, “The New Arab‘s senior news editor Paul McLoughlin, a Syria specialist, says that while Ukraine had incentives to link up with Syrian rebel groups to attack Russian forces, it was still difficult to verify whether any of these claims are true.”

Yes, but it’s previously known that Ukrainian special forces have been active in Syria: Kyiv Post, Ukraine’s Special Forces Target Russian Drone Base in Syria

The New Arab reports: “Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker, Nabih Berri, said at least 54 violations were recorded since Wednesday.” Other sources report: “Israel fires on southern Lebanon after claiming ceasefire violation” While CNN quotes a source with the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon asserting that Israel has breached its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon ‘approximately 100’ times since the truce went into effect last week.” CNN also reports that “the United States and France have both warned Israel they believe it has violated the ceasefire terms.”

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said on Monday: “Let me be clear that the US is in no way involved in the operations you see playing out in and around Aleppo in northwestern Syria, which as you know are being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization.” However, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.” CNN, US left facing a difficult situation in Syria.   In related news: The Cradle, US-backed Kurdish militia withdraws from Aleppo in agreement with HTS.

What truce? And to be clear: It’s Lebanon and Gaza that are being flattened. Al Monitor, Israel hits Hezbollah targets in Lebanon days into fragile truce

They’re a rebranded mix of “former” Al Qaeda & Islamic State fighters.  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been for years confined to the province of Idlib where it essentially governs. A ceasefire with Damascus was brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020. Now they’re exploiting Russia’s focus on Ukraine and various Israeli and US attacks on Iran-allied groups some of whom have been mainstays of Syrian government rule. Notably, “HTS had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict until this week.” Has there also been direct encouragement by outside actors? BBC, Who are the rebels seizing control of Syria’s second city?

The Project on Government Oversight (POGO) summarizes a damning report on the F-35 done by DoD’s office of Operational Test and Evaluation and obtained by POGO via the Freedom of Information Act. The persisting F-35 problems?

• Failure to meet key availability and reliability requirements
• Continued inaccuracy of the gun
• Excessive logistics footprint
• Delays on promised improvements
• Troubled AI system for maintenance support
• Stealth Capabilities Are Hard to Maintain (and were not fully tested)

POGO, F-35 Testing Report Reveals Problems with Production Decisions

• Halt to hostilities will begin 12 hours after ceasefire announcement
• Israel would withdraw but not immediately. 30-60 days is likely agreement
• Hezbollah fighters will lmove north of the Litani River, which is 20 miles north of the border.
• Hezbollah military facilities in the south “will be dismantled” ..but by whom?
• Lebanese army would deploy troops south of the Litani. ~5000 troops, 33 posts along the border
• Monitoring might be done by UNIFIL and Lebanese army with an oversight group including the USA and France
• Israel would reserve right to strike Lebanon if it concludes that Hezbollah withdrawal and dismantling of southern infrastructure is not occurring.

PDA commentary: One important point is that Hezbollah efforts to compel a ceasefire in Gaza would end. Also, if Lebanon actually agrees “in writing” to allow Israel to police the agreement via future strikes on Lebanon, it would be a remarkable surrender of sovereignty. Middle East Monitor, US-brokered truce details

This won’t wash – not involving any substantial number. Also, keep in mind that leaks have indicated that ~150 NATO military and intelligence agents are already present. Contractors? Unknown. At any rate: It would take multiple tens-of-thousands operating in rear areas to make a discernible difference, by improving support and freeing-up Ukrainian troops to go forward. Would this provoke RU vs US-NATO war? It would certainly increase the probability. But Putin has other options: Target NATO personnel in Ukraine. Also, an invasion by NATO makes total Russian mobilization politically practicable. All this should be obvious to Macron and Starmer, suggesting that the leak is a desperate gambit, in the shadow of Trump’s ascent, to dampen Putin’s optimism and improve Ukraine’s bargaining position. Ukrainska Pravda, Europe troops to Ukraine?

“Antipersonnel land mines are banned by a treaty signed by more than 160 countries, but the U.S. and Russia aren’t signatories. Arms control and human rights groups say they cause disproportionately high civilian casualties, and some can endanger civilians years after a conflict ends.” USA Today, Biden will give Ukraine land mines

Also see: Politico, ‘Frankly shocking’: Human rights groups thrash Biden’s decision to send land mines to Ukraine 

“Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region… Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops have pushed Kyiv’s offensive backwards. BBC, Ukraine front could ‘collapse’

Also see: BBC, Russia and US battle for advantage in Ukraine war ahead of Trump’s return

“Beth Miller, political director at the US-based advocacy group Jewish Voice for Peace, called the US veto on Wednesday ‘pathetic’ and said the Biden administration’s legacy will be the genocide in Gaza.” Al Jazeera, US Vetoes Resolution

Also see: Middle East Eye,
The 49 times the US used veto power against UN resolutions on Israel –
“In the past year alone, Washington has vetoed four Security Council resolutions calling for a Gaza ceasefire.”

The three relevant resolutions were defeated 18-79, 19-78, and 17-80. All of those voting in support were Democrats. (Republican Sens. Mike Braun and JD Vance, the vice-president-elect, did not vote.)

The vote is at odds with US public sentiment. As Sanders pointed out “poll after poll shows that a strong majority of the American people oppose sending more weapons and military aid to fund Netanyahu’s war machine.” Also, “According to a poll commissioned by J Street… 62% of Jewish Americans support withholding weapons shipments to Israel until Netanyahu agrees to an immediate cease-fire.” But the leadership of both US parties still embrace out of fear or commitment a 9/11 frame for guiding policy on the Israel-Gaza war.

In this frame, Israeli efforts to destroy Hamas – a militant Islamic organization guilty of war crimes – justify much greater IDF war crimes. Current estimates are that direct and indirect war deaths in Gaza may surpass 180,000. What seems obvious to much of the world – that Netanyahu is actually pursuing ethnic cleansing, which is a genocidal objective – hardly registers among US Democratic and GOP leadership. Common Dreams, Senate Rejects Sanders’ Bid

Biden administration “terror-bates” Sanders et al. A new low for the White House. Huffington Post exclusive.

Report estimates 186,000 direct and indirect deaths. “Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.” Article has link to full report. Lancet, Counting the Dead

“The report details the most prominent crimes committed over the past 12 months, thoroughly documented by Euro-Med field teams. It traces the clear elements of genocide perpetrated by the Israeli army, explores the legal frameworks defining the crime of genocide, and scrutinizes both the context and ongoing circumstances. The report also addresses the international judiciary’s response, and, significantly, the global community’s complicit role in allowing the genocide to continue.” De-Gaza report

Is the United States sleepwalking into disaster in the Middle East? Retired army colonel Douglas Macgregor sets out four questions to be answered before joining any Israeli attack on Iran. They give strong reason to pause. Notably, Macgregor briefly served as a defense advisor in the last Trump administration. American Conservative: Storm of the Century

A very significant change in the balance of opinion, but hardly surprising. Within this group, however, only half favor territorial concessions – that is 26% of the whole. Still, even among those 38% of Ukrainians who want to continue fighting until victory, only 81% say that means recovering all territory. Gallup, Ukrainian Opinion on Negotiating Peace Now

“US Senate is set to vote this week on ‘historic’ resolutions of disapproval of a $20bn weapons deal with Israel.” Essential background: The failure of Israel to make progress in redressing the humanitarian disaster it’s made in Gaza as demanded by the Biden administration. The administration set a Nov 13 deadline, but now claims contrary to evidence that Israeli behavior is acceptable. Al Jazeera, Bernie Sanders pushes to block US arms sale to Israel

“The vast majority of more than 800 companies in Ukraine’s burgeoning defense production sector were founded after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion that enters its 1,000th day on Tuesday…. The Ukrainian military-industrial sector is the fastest innovating sector in the entire world right now.” Drones and counter-drone tech are the leading sectors. US News, 1000 Days of Conflict Fuel Robot Wars Between Russia and Ukraine

“Russia is engaged in what US officials describe as the ‘most ambitious expansion in military manufacturing since the Soviet era’. Satellite imagery suggests that solid-propellant rocket motor-production capacity appears to be one focus of this effort. Substantial development activity is visible at five sites associated with the production of solid propellants.” IISS, Russia Expanding Rocket Facilities

“During campaign, Trump vowed to purge military of ‘woke’ generals” – that is, those supportive of diversity, equality, and inclusion initiatives. But what about extremism in the ranks. Reuters, How Trump could lead a Pentagon purge

“An executive order draft…would establish a Trump-appointed “warrior board” with the power to purge any three- or four-star generals as it sees fit.” TRP, A Military Purge?

How will Moscow respond? Hard not to see this as US-election related. Trump talks talks, Biden unbinds deep-strike ATACMs. Will this improve Zelenskyy’s bargaining position? Well, Moscow is bound to retaliate in ways that undercut impetus for peace talks. Possible responses? Much of western Ukraine has escaped heavy bombardment – so far. Horizontal escalation could involve actions regarding N.Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, or the Sahel. And a single Ukrainian strike claiming numerous Russian civilians is all Putin needs to enact a general mobilization with impunity. AP, Biden authorizes Ukrainian deep strikes with US weapons

Early in the Israel-Gaza war the IDF posted hundreds of clips of its air strikes. “Despite the grainy videos published with few details on targets or locations, Airwars matched 17 strikes to specific” locations where “more than 400 civilians were reported killed.” Our observation: An unspoken possibility is that a minority of IDF air strikes caused most of the direct civilian deaths. A marginal increase in target discrimination and restraint might have dramatically reduced civilian casualties. Airwars Report

The IDF says it has run “a ‘precise campaign’ in Gaza, but analysis of air strike clips tells a different story.” The analysis group Airwars has examined Israeli military film clips of air strikes and in 17 cases was able to correlate the strikes to reports of civilian casualties. 400 Gazans were killed in these strike, including more than 200 children. Middle East Eye, Film Clips of Israeli Air Strikes Reveal Civilian Harm

“Israeli authorities have caused massive, deliberate forced displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza since October 2023 and are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity. There is no plausible imperative military reason to justify Israel’s mass displacement of nearly all of Gaza’s population.” HRW, Israel’s Crimes Against Humanity