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War & Consequences: Global Terrorism has Increased Since 9/11 Attacks

(HTML version) (printable PDF version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #38, 25 September 2006. The memo analyzes the change in the incidence of terrorism since 11 September 2001, finding a distinct increase. It also summarizes the findings of various studies on the relationship between the Iraq war and terrorism which show that in the words of one, the Iraq war “has reinforced the determination of terrorists who were already committed to attacking the West and motivated others who were not.”

Report of the task force on a Unified Security Budget for the United States, FY2007

(printable PDF version) Lawrence Korb and Miriam Pemberton, principal authors, Foreign Policy in Focus and the Center for Defense Information, 03 May 2006, Guest Publication. Builds a unified budget for all aspects of national security and assesses the opportunities for improved security through altering the balance among defense, homeland security, and international affairs expenditures. PDA is a member of report’s task force. David Unger cites this report in Our Indefensible National Security Budget, The New York Times, 20 September 2006.

Fighting on Borrowed Time: The Effect on US Military Readiness of America’s post-9/11 Wars

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #19, 11 September 2006. To sustain today’s wars, the Bush administration has adopted a policy of “risk displacement”. High optempo is maintained in Iraq and Afghanistan at the expense of readiness elsewhere and for other missions. The policy also saps future readiness. It may take the US military half a decade to recover.

Pyrrhus on the Potomac: How America’s post-9/11 wars have undermined US national security

(printable PDF version) (HTML version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #18, 05 September 2006.  A net assessment of America’s post-911 security policy shows it to be “pyrrhic” in character: although progress has been made in disrupting Al Qaeda, the broader effect has been to increase the threat to the United States, while weakening the nation’s capacity to respond effectively.

Dissuading China and Fighting the ‘Long War’

by Carl Conetta, World Policy Journal, 01 July 2006. ➪ PDF

The 2006 US Defense Review advanced two new strategic vectors for the US armed forces – one targets a putative “global Islamic insurgency”; the other puts America on a collision course with China.

(A longer version of this article was published in November 2006 under the title The Near Enemy and the Far: The Long War, China, and the 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review.)

A Few Thoughts on the Evolution of Infantry: Past, Present, Future

by Lutz Unterseher, Guest Publication, Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, Germany, May 2006.  PDF  | HTML 
Subduing resistance and guarding the peace in modern interventions requires high-quality infantry, but it is erroneous to think the job could be done by elite SOF forces because there can never be enough of these. The vast majority of the all-volunteer armies in the industrial West face a problem when it comes to attracting sufficient personnel: relatively few recruits are good enough to receive the more demanding training needed — creating a dilemma that has rarely been addressed and one that certainly is yet to be solved by today’s armies.

Die Europäische Union: Stolpersteine auf dem Weg zur Integration (The European Union: Stumbling Blocks on the Road to Integration)

(printable PDF version) by Lutz Unterseher, Guest Publication, Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin, Germany, May 2006. In German with English abstract. The EU is entering a sustained period of conflict-prone development with grossly different paths of adjustment and modernization stimulating constant fighting for a redistribution of notoriously scarce central resources. If Europe does not want to fall back onto the level of a mere free-trade arrangement, if it intends to become a unified actor in the international arena that transcends the role of just an economic bloc and is also capable of generating and executing global policies with respect to the environment, security and other issues, there is no alternative to an ‘open-club régime’.

More troops for Iraq? Time to just say “No”

(printable PDF version) (HTML version)  by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #39, 09 January 2006.  There is no reason to believe that a marginal increase in the US troop presence in Iraq will turn the tide there. The memo reviews relevant data on troop strength, insurgent activity, and Iraqi public opinion. It traces America’s troubles in Iraq to the nature of the mission, which it concludes is founded on strategic error.

Security in the Great Transition

 by Charles Knight, Tellus Institute Great Transition Initiative Series, 2006.  PDF
This essay seeks to offer a plausible narrative of how the world moves very close to the elimination of large-scale organized violence over the course of this century.
“This narrative is written with the voice of a grateful historian in 2084. Whatever reality emerges [over the coming decades] will not be constructed out of human imagination and agency alone. Much is beyond our control. But as humans we have some freedom to apply our labor and skills with spirit and purpose toward goals. The first step on this path of purpose is in the imagination.”