Slovenian Security in the European Perspective

(HTML version) by Anton Grizold and Ljubica Jelusic, September 1999. Examines the development of this new nation’s security establishment and policy in the light of Slovenian history, cultural attitudes toward the state, the military, and alliances. Places the development of security policy in the social/political and economic context of Slovenia’s efforts to join NATO and the EU and includes analysis of Slovenian public opinion on these issues.

Interventionism Reconsidered: Reconciling Military Action With Political Stability

(HTML version) by Lutz Unterseher, September 1999. When troops trained, structured, and equipped for traditional peacekeeping are employed in missions such as the protection of humanitarian sanctuaries and convoys under acute threat they are not prepared for forceful measures sufficient to deal with and discourage military challenges. This paper discusses what would constitute “adequacy” of force that does not have a character or magnitude that compromises the primacy of political conflict resolution. A revised version of a paper was contributed to a 1999 workshop held at the University of Melbourne’s Centre for Philosophy and Public Issues on the topic, The Ethics of Armed Intervention.

The Coming Transformation of the Muslim World

(HTML version) by Dale F. Eickelman, July 1999. by permission of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), Philadelphia, PA, USA. This essay provides insight into forces of change in Muslim societies that contain seeds of reconciliation with Western culture and political practice. It is worth taking note of the opportunities therein for relations of respect and peace, and for avoidance of the great ‘clash of civilizations’ famously predicted by Samuel Huntington.

Alleged ‘Carrier Gap’ is Out to Sea

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Memo #15, 30 April 1999. The April 1999 re-routing of aircraft carriers to support operations in the Persian Gulf and the Balkans inspired alarm about the effect of the move on America’s military presence in the Pacific. However, the assertions of a serious gap in carrier coverage are groundless. Alarmism about redeployment misjudges the effect of the move on the military balance in Northeast Asia and betrays a disregard for the one feature of aircraft carriers — their flexibility — that is supposed to give them unique strategic value worthy of their prodigious cost.

The Readiness Crisis of the U.S. Air Force: A Review and Diagnosis

(HTML version) (summary) by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Report #10, 22 April 1999. By some accounts, the Air Force is suffering from a systemic readiness crisis brought on by a combination of post-Cold War defense retrenchment and increased operational activity. PDA’s examination of the Air Force’s recent readiness problems and of longer-term trends in readiness and optempo finds little to support this view. Neither talk of crisis, nor crisis spending are warranted.

Military Strategy Under Review

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, Foreign Policy In Focus, Volume 4, Number 3, 01 January 1999.  HTML | PDF

“’Environment shaping’, the other ascendant element in the new strategy, prescribes a more active peacetime use of military power to influence the course of strategic affairs. It encompasses not only traditional deterrence, but also the goals of discouraging other nations from even trying to compete militarily with the U.S. and of ‘preventing the emergence of a hostile regional coalition or hegemon’ Key to achieving this novel “preemptory” deterrence is the maintenance of a robust U.S. regional presence, a daunting degree of U.S. military superiority, and a technological edge that no prospective competitor could hope to diminish.”

Nato Expansion: Costs and Implications

(HTML version) A presentation by Carl Conetta to the International Network of Engineers and Scientists for Global Responsibility, Cambridge, MA, USA, 23 July 1998. The expansion of NATO is as fateful an initiative as any undertaken in the past 200 years, calling to mind the decisions made at the 1814 Congress of Vienna and at Versailles in 1919. It is peculiar and disconcerting, then, that the questions this initiative inspires remain so elementary: Why expansion? And, To what effect? At what cost, financial and strategic?

Maneuver Warfare Principles and Terms

By Carl Conetta, Project on Defense Alternatives, Briefing Memo, 12 March 1998.

maneuver bridgingIn the words of one strategic analyst, attrition is “war waged by industrial methods.” In the attrition approach, the adversary is defined as a series of targets to be “serviced” (that is, destroyed). Other than the achievement of initial surprise in the attack, there is little art or artifice in the approach. As an ideal type it takes as its prime objective the physical destruction of the adversary’s material strength; it associates success with material superiority; and it adopts as a basic principle the simple imperative; “more.”

In maneuver warfare, by contrast, “the goal is to incapacitate by systemic disruption” and dislocation. The target is the coherence of the adversary’s combat systems, methods, and plans. The hope is that a very selective action can have a cascading effect — an effect disproportionately greater than the degree of effort. An analogy from architecture would be the removal or destruction of the keystone of an arch. Here the arch is conceived as a “system” whose dynamic element is gravity which has been converted to useful purpose by the positioning of the keystone — the removal of which disrupts the stability of the system, resulting in its destruction.

The three basic principles of maneuver warfare are: (1) identify and target enemy centers of gravity, (2) set and maintain favorable terms of battle, and (3) find and exploit “gaps” in enemy strength.

In the example of the arch, the keystone is a “center of gravity” (in the strategic, not literal sense). Notably, it is not a “weakness,” nor a “strength” of the system (arch), but rather a source or enabler of strength. In war, centers of gravity are not absolute, but instead relative to the adversary’s character, methods, objectives, and plans. (In the First and Second World Wars, for instance, one of the Allied powers’ strategic centers of gravity was the secure industrial capacity of the United States, which Germany targeted indirectly by means of submarine warfare.) If centers of gravity have a universal or defining attribute, it is this: attacking them successfully has a cascading or catastrophic effect on enemy morale, organization, and operations. Centers of gravity exist at every level of war, and the epitome of maneuver is for a unit to upset an enemy center at one or more levels higher than its own level of organization, and to do so with minimal combat.

Setting the terms of battle (which among other things may include time, place, pace, intensity, and type of engagement) means ensuring that combat proceeds under conditions favorable to the defense. In general, the aim is to set terms that accentuate friendly strengths and enemy weaknesses while minimizing friendly vulnerabilities and enemy strengths. The challenge for the practitioner of maneuver is to establish and maintain this condition.

Despite its linear connotation, the injunction to “find and exploit gaps” means aligning friendly strength against enemy weakness in the combat process. Success in setting the terms of battle facilitates this effort while restricting enemy opportunities to exploit gaps in friendly strength.

The three aspects of maneuver operate together to achieve disproportionate effects, in the following fashion: centers of gravity define the objective, the imperative to find and exploit “gaps” defines the approach to the objective, and setting the terms of battle facilitates the effort overall while controlling for enemy counter-initiatives. Indeed, the greater the success in setting the overall terms of battle, the easier it is to find gaps and compromise centers of gravity.

Any significant success in the maneuver contest depends on first, achieving and maintaining a relative advantage in the flow of accurate information, and second, possessing greater relative flexibility in the allocation of combat power.

Defense Sufficiency and Cooperation: A US Military Posture for the post-Cold War Era

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, Project on Defense Alternatives briefing report, 01 March 1998.  ⇒ HTML  ⇒ PDF
This study presents a comprehensive and coherent US military posture option for a fifteen-year period beginning in 1998. While maintaining continuity of key aspects of US security strategy, it finds ample opportunity for further reductions in forces size and consequently in budget. Includes specification of force structure, equipment holdings, deployment, modernization plans, and defense budgets.

Dueling with Uncertainty: the New Logic of American Military Planning

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, February 1998. ➪ HTML PDF

 

wild cards

Examines how the new planning concepts and methods adopted by the Pentagon since 1992 have led to military requirements disproportionate to real threats and have supported overweening ambitions for the application of military power. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”

Wanting Leadership: Public Opinion on Defense Spending

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, January 1998. Since 1982 significantly more Americans have supported cuts in defense spending than have supported increases. After 1994, when President Clinton called for “no further cuts in spending,” the portion of Americans supporting increases has risen somewhat. Surveys uphold the key role of leadership in the formation of public sentiments about defense-related issues finding that a solid majority of the public would support relatively deep cuts in the Pentagon budget if the President and Congress proposed them.

Asia Pacific Tilts to West: Limit Offensive Weaponry, Boost Arms Control

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, commentary originally published in Defense News, 31 March – 06 April 1997.
➪ HTML

Examines the pattern of military spending in the Asia Pacific region since the Cold War and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Based on data and analysis from Post-Cold War US Military Expenditure in the Context of World Spending Trends.

Framework for Constructing a “New Era” Alternative to the Bottom-Up Review

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, February 1997.
➪ HTML

 
Based on the strategic objective of a core area coalition defense (i.e. Persian Gulf, Korea, and Europe) this memo takes the reader step by step through the logic of force sizing and structuring and modernization requirements to arrive at a robust and consistent alternative to the Bottom-Up Review force posture.

Post-Cold War US Military Expenditure in the Context of World Spending Trends

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Memo #10, January 1997.
➪ HTML
➪ summary

Based on a review of official world military spending data, this study finds evidence that the strategic position of the US and its allies has improved immensely relative to the potential threat states. It also looks at regional trends and offers a perspective on the new and ambitious regional military strategy of the U.S.

On the Threshold of Change: South African Defence Review reflects the continuing struggle to define a military policy for the new era

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Lutz Unterseher. This commentary reviews the findings of the draft South African Defence Review (SADR) — Report on Posture, released in October 1996. Although the SADR represents an important advance in the new democratic control of the South African military, it has a number of shortcomings in assessing policy objectives, design directives and force requirements and design.

Building Confidence into the Security of Southern Africa

by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight and Lutz Unterseher. PDA Briefing Report #7, July 1996 (revised November 1996). ➪ HTML
Appendix: A Confidence-Building and Affordable South African Defence in 2001.

 

 

This report offers guidelines for the development of cooperative regional security and specifies a South African defense posture that would support and encourage cooperation. It includes specifications of the fundamentals of a confidence-building defense posture for the region.

Defensive Restructuring in the Successor States of the former-Yugoslavia

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Lutz Unterseher, PDA Briefing Report #8, March 1996.
➪ HTML

This report offers an alternative to “balancing” the arms in the former Yugoslavia by way of transfers and military aid. Instead, it illustrates the restructuring of the region’s militaries toward greater stability with “mutual defensive superiority.” This study was initiated at the request of Ambassador Jonathan Dean who serves on PDA’s Research Advisory Board.

Design for a 15,000-person UN Legion

(HTML version) by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, Briefing Report 8, October 1995. Prepared for members of the UN Military Force Study Group of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, this report presents a design for a streamlined UN Legion capable of deploying rapidly for a wide range of peace operations. It addresses operational requirements, command and unit structure, equipment, basing, and budget. It is published as Appendix: Design for a Streamlined UN Legion in Carl Kaysen and George Rathjens, Peace Operations by the United Nations: The Case for a Volunteer UN Military Force, Committee on International Security Studies, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Cambridge, MA, USA, 1996.

Vital Force: A Proposal for the Overhaul of the UN Peace Operations System and for the Creation of a UN Legion

by Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, PDA Research Monograph #4, October 1995. 141 pp. 11 figures. 13 tables.
➪ PDF

Reviews the problems of contemporary peace operations, recent reform proposals, and the requirements for successful operations. Includes a detailed proposal for enhancing and reorganizing the capacities of the UN to support and direct peace operations and for establishing a UN legion of three brigades.


Selections from Vital Force are also available in HTML format:

Nonoffensive Defense and the Transformation of US Defense Posture: Is Nonoffensive Defense Compatible with Global Power?

by Carl Conetta, July 1995. Paper presented at the Nonoffensive Defence in a Global Perspective Seminar in Copenhagen, 04-05 February 1995. Originally published in NOD and Conversion, no. 33, July 1995.

 

Discusses the application of nonoffensive defense concepts to a revision of US military policy and as a design principle for global system transformation. Regarding US power, it looks specifically at the potential for reorientation of power projection forces and military assistance programs.

Low Flying and Security Posture: Examining NATO Military Low-Flying and its Future Prospects

by Alan Bloomgarden, December 1994.
➪ PDF

 

This report examines the role of low-flying tactics in NATO air strategy and questions whether additional training in this tactic is required or appropriate in the post-Cold War period. It was commissioned by the Innu Nation as a contribution to the environmental impact statement review process of proposed expanded military flying activities in Labrador and Quebec.

 

The Left and the Military

by Charles Knight

originally published in Dissent magazine, Fall 1994.

➪ see full-text: HTML or  PDF

This article argues that if the American left seeks to influence state policy, it must do much more than reflexively criticize U.S. military policy.  Instead, it must engage with critical debates in the field from an informed stance that both criticizes and presents a coherent set of counter-policies with which it can attract the growing support of the American people over time.  This article proposes both principles and select particulars for this counter-policy.

Despite the left’s consistent attention to military matters, it lacks a coherent approach to military policy. Mostly, the left has an inclination toward military issues — and that inclination has been fairly consistently anti-military. This does not preclude banging the drum occasionally for select interventions. But it does mean that whenever the left relates to military policy, it relates as an outsider; it relates as though the realm of military policy is unremittingly hostile to progressive values. This article will argue that a positive progressive military policy is both possible and necessary — necessary both to achieve progressive goals and to the credibility of the left in American politics.

Confidence-Building Defense: a comprehensive approach to security and stability in the new era

by Carl Conetta and Lutz Unterseher. May 1994.
Newly published in ➪ PDF.

Originally, this primer was written and then published in spiral-bound book format for a series of seminars sponsored by the Study Group on Alternative Security Policy (SAS) and the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA).  These seminars were held in 1994 in several of the newly sovereign states of Europe: the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Belarus.

In 1994 no suitable seminar host was found in Ukraine.  Although confidence-building defenses can not solve all of Ukraine’s strategic dilemmas during the present war with Russia, initial evidence strongly suggests that its military has made successful use of some of the principal aspects of a confidence-building defense.

The primer remains one of the most comprehensive presentations of the concepts of Confidence-Building Defense (C-BD), including details of their application to the structuring and operations of national armed forces.  It totals 116 pages with 94 charts and tables.

Although some details of arms and tactics change over time, the fundamentals remain relevant to present-day international security, military planning, and the furthering of peaceful relations.